OPEC again cuts global oil demand growth forecast

OPEC on Tuesday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year, mainly to reflect data received year to date.

In its latest monthly oil report, the group cut its demand growth projection for 2024 to 2.03M barrels per day from 2.11M barrels per day it expected last month. Even with the reduction, the group still sees oil consumption expanding this year by 1.99% Y/Y to average 104.24M barrels per day.

In terms of regions, OECD oil demand is expected to grow by over 0.1M b/d this year, with OECD Americas accounting for the entire oil demand growth.

Among non-OECD nations, oil demand is estimated to grow by more than 1.8M b/d year-over-year, driven mostly by China. OPEC revised its forecast of Chinese growth to 650,000 b/d in 2024 from 700,000 b/d.

“Looking ahead, China’s economic growth is expected to remain well supported,” OPEC said in the report, with oil demand in the country estimated to expand by 559 tb/d year-over-year on average in the second half of the year.

“However, headwinds in the real estate sector and the increasing penetration of LNG trucks and electric vehicles are likely to weigh on diesel and gasoline demand going forward,” the group added.

OPEC also slightly revised its global oil demand estimates for 2025, with growth now seen at 1.74M b/d from prior estimates of 1.78M b/d.

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