Pfizer, GSK, Moderna struggle in a shrinking RSV vaccine market

Moderna’s (NASDAQ:MRNA) Q3 results confirmed on Thursday that the U.S. vaccine market for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), led by Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and GSK (NYSE:GSK), is shrinking.

Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), the last of the trio to report Q3 results, posted $10M in sales for its RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, during its full quarter of sales, falling far short of the $135M projected by analysts, according to data compiled by LSEG.

The company attributed the underperformance to a delay in mRESVIA’s FDA approval and subsequent CDC recommendation, which had forced it to lag behind competitors in the vaccine contracting season.

By the time the mRNA-based vaccine was launched, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and GSK (NYSE:GSK), the established players in the RSV vaccine market, had built up sizable inventory, impacting the company’s sales, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) CEO Stéphane Bancel said.

However, even established players have struggled. In its Q3 results, GSK (NYSE:GSK), the first to receive U.S. approval for an RSV vaccine in May 2023, said its Arexvy vaccine added £188M in sales, indicating ~ a 73% YoY drop.

The British vaccine maker said that the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) that narrowed recommendations on RSV immunizations in June hurt Arexvy sales.

Its rival Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) agreed as the New York-based pharma giant reported $356M in Q3 sales from its RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, indicating a ~5% YoY drop.

Despite a steady increase over the quarter, Abrysvo volumes have fallen from last year, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) CEO Albert Bourla said, citing unfavorable CDC recommendations and timing of COVID vaccinations as reasons for the decline.

Despite disappointing sales, all three vaccine makers cite better days ahead.

Bourla said PFE’s market share for Abrysvo in the retail setting has climbed for “nine consecutive weeks through mid-October, currently reaching 43%,” and its market share among wholesalers has exceeded 50% for the quarter.

“So we see momentum on ABRYSVO, and we look forward to future ACIP updates,” Bourla added. GSK (NYSE:GSK) continues to project £3B in peak sales for Arexvy while assuming that the CDC will stick to its existing recommendations on RSV immunizations next year.

As for Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), the company banks on overseas regulatory clearances for mRESVIA next year and projects potential market expansions in the event of regulatory backing for revaccinations.