A slightly disappointing revenue outlook from Pfizer (PFE) was enough for its COVID-19 vaccine rivals Moderna (MRNA) and Novavax (NVAX) to trade lower on Tuesday, just as a major safety scare related to their products came to an end.
Novavax (NVAX) and Moderna (MRNA) closed higher on Monday after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said that the regulator has no plans to add a “black box” warning, the agency’s most serious alert, to COVID-19 vaccines despite a media report that suggested otherwise.
Those gains proved to be transient after the FDA revised its 2025 outlook, indicating $62B in revenue, just shy of the $62.52B projected by analysts. While PFE reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance, its newly issued earnings outlook for 2026 also fell short of forecasts.
Pfizer (PFE) lost ~5% in reaction, while BioNTech (BNTX), its partner for its COVID shot Comirnaty; Novavax (NVAX), the developer of the Sanofi (SNY)-partnered Nuvaxovid vaccine; and Moderna (MRNA), the maker of the Spikevax shot, dropped ~2% each.
For next year, Pfizer (PFE) implied flat sales growth, which, however, met the consensus but indicated that its revenue from its COVID franchise could be about $1.6B lower compared to 2026. Additionally, nearly $1.5B in revenue impact attributed to products facing loss of exclusivity was also included in the 2026 outlook.
“While the company is on a right path to get back to growth, we see continued near-term pressure from LOE and as such continue to remain on the sidelines,” Citi analyst Geoff Meacham wrote with a Neutral rating on the stock, according to Bloomberg.
Leerink Partners’ analyst David Risinger opined that the pharma giant’s 2026 earnings outlook, which he said stood 5% below consensus, was not a surprise given dilution from the company’s new acquisitions, such as weight-loss drug developer Metsera. “Pfizer issued 2026 EPS guidance 5% below consensus, but this is not a major surprise given acquisition-related dilution,” Risinger added with a Market Perform rating.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s Chris Schott said that PFE’s outlook mostly met expectations, with R&D investments/COVID headwinds partially negating tailwinds from ongoing restructuring efforts. Schott, who has a Neutral rating on the stock, added that while PFE shares remain “inexpensive with several assets in PFE’s pipeline that could make the story more interesting over time,” additional data/derisking of these programs will be required to change investor sentiment.