Pfizer hits 52-week low, drags COVID vaccine peers on weak guidance

Update 01:56 PM EST: Adds comments Seeking Alpha analyst

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) shares reached a new 52-week low on Wednesday after the COVID-19 vaccine maker set its 2024 outlook below expectations, dragging its peers such as Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), and its partner BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX).

Other notable decliners include CureVac (CVAC), Valneva (VALN), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). The latter drew additional pressure when Wells Fargo downgraded the stock, citing, among other things, its overly optimistic forecasts for its MedTech segment.

In the case of Pfizer (PFE), its 2024 outlook trails consensus estimates for revenue and adj. earnings per share by as much as $3.2B and $1.02, respectively, at the midpoint.

That’s after accounting for its Seagen (SGEN) acquisition, from which the company expects to add $3.1B in revenue next year after completing the deal on Thursday.

The New York-based pharma giant also forecasts $8B in revenue from its COVID franchise, comprising its Comirnaty vaccine and Paxlovid pill, in 2024, compared to $8B and $5B projected by analysts for the two products, respectively, according to Reuters‘ data.

Forecasts for COVID-19 sales “likely represent a floor for 2024 sales,” J.P. Morgan analyst Chris Schott remarked, while Seeking Alpha author Stone Fox Capital argued that the company “will no longer have a strong Covid profit machine to help repay debt from the Seagen deal.”

With its Q3 results in October, Pfizer (PFE) reaffirmed its 2023 revenue outlook at $58B to $61B, expecting its COVID franchise to add $12B to the top line.