Rivian’s Q2 results and delivery forecast draws mixed reviews from Wall Street analysts

As Wall Street continues to digest Rivian’s second quarter results, shares of the electric vehicle manufacturer struggle for direction with a downside bias given the company’s profit miss and lowered EBITDA guidance for FY25.

Analysts are mostly upbeat on the company’s future but remain concerned that the elimination of EV tax credits could impact demand for the company’s R2 SUV and force Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) to lower prices, squeezing its already negative profit margin further.

“While management is still striving for EBITDA breakeven in 2027, the loss of regulatory tax credits hurts, and loss of consumer credits could lower R2 demand and/or price. Management is trying to find mitigations, but we believe the market will wait on proof here, too,” said UBS’s Joseph Spak, who maintains a Neutral rating on Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN).

Cantor’s Andres Sheppard is also Neutral on Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) owing to lower delivery expectations, worsening macro conditions, tariff uncertainty, the removal of tax credits, and uncertainty regarding Rivian’s (RIVN) autonomy and charging segments.

“We continue to believe that RIVN benefits from a commercial partnership with Amazon, strategic joint venture with Volkswagen, and differentiated product offering. But we remain discouraged by the company’s FY25 delivery guidance, which is lower than FY25 deliveries, and by the disappointing gross margin, which came in way below expectations,” Sheppard said in Wednesday’s note to clients.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, however, remains optimistic and sees Rivian (RIVN) as a “work in progress.”

“Rivian maintained its FY25 delivery guidance while lowering its adjusted EBITDA guidance as the company battles a myriad of macro headwinds while looking to balance the ramp of its vehicle lines to generate stable growth across multiple avenues while remaining prudent on spend[ing] to drive bottom-line expansion to navigate the difficult macro landscape,” Ives said, holding onto his Outperform rating and generous $16 price target.

Needham’s Chris Pierce is also bullish on Rivian, reiterating a Buy rating but with a more conservative $14 price target.

“While we acknowledge the near-term macro and policy headwinds, we continue to view RIVN as a structurally advantaged, cash rich EV pure-play with a differentiated brand, vertical integration, and a significantly improved cost structure on the upcoming R2 platform that positions the company for accelerated margin expansion and volume growth once R2 launches in H1 2026.”

And until the R2 launches, Evercore ISI’s Chris McNally sees the company stuck in “no man’s land” without any near-term catalysts. McNally reiterates an Outperform rating on Rivian (RIVN) but cautions that until R2 deliveries begin, “Rivian will have to weather the loss of ZEV credits which had previously supported gross margins.”