SA analyst upgrades and downgrades: TSLA, MSTR, MU, and CVNA

JR Research has downgraded Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) following what they consider a fulfilled mean-reversion thesis, expressing concerns about slowing AI CapEx growth impacting future performance. Similarly, Stone Fox Capital takes a cautious stance on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), suggesting its upcoming robotaxi launch may disappoint despite market optimism. On the positive side, The Asian Investor has upgraded MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) based on Bitcoin’s recovery to new all-time highs, while Stephen Ayers acknowledges Carvana’s (NYSE:CVNA) transformation from struggling company to viable business with his upgrade to Hold.

Upgrades

• MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR): Upgrade to Hold by The Asian Investor. The analyst cites Bitcoin’s recovery to all-time highs as reducing investment risk for the company, despite its aggressive debt-financed Bitcoin acquisition strategy.

  “Given Bitcoin’s recovery to new all-time highs and a more moderate premium to book value, I am up-grading shares of MSTR to hold. …While I believe that shares of Strategy are not yet competitively priced, I believe the risk profile has improved lately as the Bitcoin price has seen a massive recovery and even touched on new highs briefly.”

• Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA): Upgrade Sell to Hold by Stephen Ayers. The analyst recognizes Carvana’s significant financial turnaround, with strong revenue growth, improved profitability, and positive free cash flow signaling business viability despite valuation concerns.

  “Carvana’s recent performance merits a rating upgrade from Sell to Hold. It has transitioned to profitability, and the levers are there for more growth and profitability for years to come. While its stock appears overpriced, even with optimistic assumptions, it is not to the extent that it feels ridiculous.”

Downgrades

• Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU): Downgrade to Hold by JR Research. After seeing the stock outperform semiconductor peers since April lows, the analyst expresses concern about expected slowdowns in AI infrastructure spending and competitive pressures in the NAND market.

  “With my mean-reversion thesis having played out accordingly, I have reexamined my proposition into Micron, given the recent developments in the AI infrastructure, data center, and consumer AI space that have evolved since then… Yet, we must also be cognizant that the outlook is also contingent on the growth rates of AI CapEx, which arguably has been supported mostly by the massive investments by the hyperscalers over the past two years.”

• Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA): Downgrade to Sell by Stone Fox Capital. Despite Tesla’s imminent robotaxi launch, the analyst believes the event is already priced into the stock, with concerns about rushed execution and limited testing compared to established competitors like Waymo.

  “The key investor takeaway is that Tesla already appears valued based on initial robotaxi success, and this doesn’t appear guaranteed. The stock trades at over 180x EPS targets and over 11x sales estimates… Investors can likely buy Tesla at a lower price once the far-flung excitement disappears, even if the company is on the path to a successful robotaxi business.”