Which companies could receive refunds following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down many of the Trump administration’s tariffs?
Seeking Alpha analysts Hawkinvest and Agar Capital weigh in.
Hawkinvest: Some companies, like Costco (COST), FedEx (FDX), and Alcoa (AA), have already filed lawsuits seeking full refunds for tariffs paid. However, I think there are risks to this strategy, as President Trump could seek to make the refund process difficult and take action against entities that are not viewed as being cooperative with his tariff agenda.
Apple (AAPL), for example, could be one of the biggest beneficiaries and seek tariff refunds totaling an estimated $3B. However, I think this company is strategically holding off on taking immediate action because of potential blowback.
There is also the issue of what to do with the refunds, as some suggest they should ultimately go back to consumers. But Apple is now facing the new 15% “Section 122 surcharge” that President Trump has imposed, which currently lacks exclusions that Apple previously enjoyed. This means the new tariffs could end up costing Apple more than they stand to gain from refunds for tariffs paid in 2025.
As such, some companies could make a strategic decision to forgo tariff refunds, which could take years of litigation, and instead try to remain “favorable” to the Trump administration and potentially seek exclusions to the new Section 122 tariffs.
Agar Capital: If the courts order restitution, automakers such as General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) appear to be the most obvious candidates for tariff refunds.
The timing of such refunds, however, is unknown. Therefore, I believe that the economic effects of potential refunds are expected to primarily be reflected in increased cash flows, along with stock buybacks/dividends, rather than lower consumer prices.