Weight-loss drugs are back in the news, thanks to the emergence of a bidding war between industry heavyweights Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Pfizer (PFE) over obesity drug developer Metsera (MTSR), which went public in January.
We asked Seeking Alpha analysts Stephen Ayers and Edmund Ingham which obesity drug developer they thought could be the next takeover target.
Stephen Ayers: As evidenced by the Metsera (MTSR) bidding war, Big Pharma companies like Pfizer (PFE) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) are focused on differentiated obesity assets. Think incretins outside of GLP-1/GIP. Think better adherence potential (e.g., monthly dosing, fewer side effects) and manufacturability (e.g., small molecules). For typical weight loss, I don’t see a whole lot else on U.S.-based public markets that is compelling. So, my attention turns to rare obesity.
Rhythm (RYTM) has the only approved MC4R agonist, setmelanotide, for genetically defined rare obesity (POMC/PCSK1/LEPR/BBS), with a planned expansion into hypothalamic obesity, or HO (sNDA with FDA Priority Review and PDUFA December 20, 2025). HO should effectively double the total addressable market for setmelanotide, and some analysts are estimating up to $3 billion in peak annual sales for the basket of rare obesity indications. Conventional GLP-1s have mixed efficacy and limited data in these rare indications, so off-label competition is not a major concern.
Rhythm (RYTM) would appeal to Big Pharma because it targets a niche complementary to mass-market incretins, a highly competitive space. The commercial foundation is in place with an established rare-disease commercial infrastructure (for Imcivree/setmelanotide) and an active diagnostic funnel (no-charge 80-gene testing program) that enables fast patient identification and reimbursement.
Edmund Ingham: With two of the world’s largest pharma companies battling to acquire obesity/GLP-1 drug developer Metsera (MTSR), of which one, Novo Nordisk (NVO), already has a $2.2 billion deal with Septerna (SEPN) for obesity drug candidates, this is a prescient question.
Surprisingly, there are only a handful of U.S. biotechs developing glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist drugs, and they are well known to most investors and to larger pharmas looking to complete M&A deals. Names include Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Altimmune (ALT), Zealand Pharma (OTCPK:ZLDPF), Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN), and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR).
I am going to recommend Viking (VKTX) as the likeliest potential acquisition candidate. The company is running a Phase 3 study of its injectable GLP/GIP candidate VK2735 and has completed a Phase 2 study of an oral version of the drug.
While results have not been jaw-dropping, they have been good enough for VK2735 to potentially become the third GLP-1 obesity med to be approved for commercial use, after Eli Lilly’s (LLY) tirzepatide and Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) semaglutide. With most pharmas working with much earlier-stage candidates, there is an opportunity for somebody to jump to the head of the queue by acquiring Viking (VKTX) and its relatively derisked, pivotal study-stage candidate.