Smartphone shipments to China continue to decline, but Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) maintains its dominant market share in the country for non-China branded mobile sales, according to analysts.
The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology reported that internal smartphone shipments declined by 21.8% year over year in May. The decline was largely led by Android models.
“Android shipments in May fell 24%/11% YoY/MoM to ~18m units, the lowest level in the past 12 months,” said Jefferies analysts, led by Edison Lee, in an investor note. “Foreign brands (i.e., iPhone) fell 10% YoY but grew 29% MoM to ~4.5m, but that is only the third-highest month in the last 12, likely getting ready for 618 promotions (highly targeted to take advantage of gov subsidies).”
Jefferies noted that Huawei’s volume increased by more than 20% year over year during 618, while non-Huawei shipments declined by 4%.
“Our industry checks suggest China’s smartphone sell-through in June was flattish,” Lee added. “Therefore, we believe Android’s inventory should remain high, with shipments thus likely to continue to post negative growth in the next few months. By contrast, we believe iPhone’s inventory remains healthy in China. That is why we have a more positive view of the Apple supply chain than the Android supply chain.”
Even though Apple’s iPhone shipments to China have slowed in 2025, the brand continues to hold significant market share.
“Gartner estimates Apple’s China smartphone ship share at 11.7% in 1Q25, down from 17.2% in 4Q24 and 13% in 1Q24,” according to Wells Fargo analysts, led by Aaron Rakers, in an investor note. “Gartner’s ship estimates imply China accounted for ~16% of Apple’s total iPhone ship in 1Q25; ~18% average over trailing twelve-months. Gartner data implies Apple held a ~71% share of non-China branded smartphone ship in 1Q25; ~73% share average over trailing 12 months.”