Sportsbooks may be keeping more of the action with the Taylor Swift Effect still in play

Sportsbooks are off to a strong start to the NFL season. Macquarie estimated that the hold rates on NFL games jumped to 16% for the second week of action, which was more than double the hold rate of the first week and well above historical norms. Sportsbooks executives have noted that the Taylor Swift effect is still having a positive effect. DraftKings’ (NASDAQ:DKNG) Sports Operations Director Johnny Avello told Action Network earlier this week that the Swift-boost in betting volume from a year ago was not a passing fad and has considerable staying power. “We’ll have more Taylor Swift-themed betting options available as the Chiefs take on the Falcons this Sunday night, and will continue to create additional content for our customers throughout the season,” he highlighted. Sportsbooks historically have a higher hold rate on parlay and prop bets. Notably, Kansas City Chiefs games have seen a surge of betting volume for almost a year now, and with a higher mix of high-margin prop bets.

On Wall Street, BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) and FanDuel (NYSE:FLUT) were highlighted by Jefferies recently as winners from the early part of the NFL season. BetMGM was noted to have seen its handle and GGR move up significantly, likely due to product improvement, according to analyst David Katz. FanDuel (FLUT) continued to dominate in market share, by adding another three percentage points compared to a year ago. Looking ahead, the NFL online sports betting market is forecast to see unprecedented growth in the 2024 season. According to the American Gaming Association, an estimated $35 billion is expected to be wagered on NFL games this season, marking a substantial 30% increase from the previous year.

However, a potential area of concern for the industry may be that the pace of sports betting legislation has slowed down in the U.S., with Missouri the only state set to let voters decide on legislation in November. Currently, 38 states (plus Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico) offer legal sports betting in some format. The sports betting holdouts are Alabama, Alaska, California, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah. Of course, California and Texas stand out as the two most populous states in the U.S.

In Texas, a bill to legalize sports wagering passed the State House in 2023, but stalled in the Senate and cannot be picked up again until 2025. In California, a ballot effort in 2022 to legalize mobile wagering was turned by California voters by a wide margin.

On the federal scene, the Supporting Affordability & Fairness with Every Bet Act has been introduced. The bill aims to impose a series of limitations on gambling industry advertising, limit the number of daily deposits a bettor can make, prohibit the use of credit cards to fund accounts, and ban prop bets on college athletes. The bill is not seeing any momentum in Washington and is expected to falter, according to BTIG. “We tend to see some lawmaking commentary on gambling around big events like the Super Bowl and March Madness, but we have yet to see consistent follow through in the form of hearings,” noted the BTIG analyst team. Another bill called the Gambling Addiction, Recovery, Investment and Treatment Act (GRIT Act) would dedicate 50% of the federal sports excise tax to gambling addiction treatment and research. However, that bill is also seen having no viable path to passage in the near-term.

Stocks with ties to sports betting include DraftKings (DKNG), FanDuel (FLUT), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Caesars Interactive (CZR), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Penn Entertainment (PENN), Bally’s Interactive (BALY), Sportradar (SRAD), Genius Sports (GENI), GAN Limited (GAN), Churchill Downs (CHDN), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Elys BMG Group (OTC:ELYS), and SharpLink Gaming (SBET). Privately owned Fanatics and Hard Rock International are also active in sports betting in the U.S.

Rush Street Interactive (RSI) and Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) are the only two sports betting-related stocks with a clean sweep of buy ratings across Wall Street analysts, Seeking Alpha analysts, and the Seeking Alpha Quant Rating system.