Starbucks’ (SBUX) first-quarter earnings on January 28 are expected to show improving sales trends, while margins and earnings likely remain pressured due to investments.
The company is expected to post earnings of $0.59 per share on revenue of $9.65B, which translates to a nearly 3% year-on-year rise.
Analysts at UBS have projected first-quarter same-store sales growth of 3% in North America, including ticket growth of 1% and transactions of 2%. Same-store sales were likely uplifted following recent store closures, they added. The brokerage has projected FY26 North America same-store sales of 3.9%.
UBS expects the company’s ‘Back to Starbucks’ plan to support growth. It will also be tracking the progress of Starbucks’ ‘Green Apron Service’ model, with the expectation for further improvement in service and better customer and staff experience.
It expects to see a transaction improvement in FY26 driven by contributions from menu innovation, including Protein Latte and Cold Foam Drinks, marketing events like Red Cup Day, and a solid pipeline of new menu items and marketing like the Kardashian Khloud Popcorn partnership and Beast Games.
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 17 downward moves, and revenue estimates have seen 6 upward revisions and 11 downward moves. Over the last 2 years, Starbucks has beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 38% of the time.
On a YTD basis, the stock has appreciated by over 14% compared to a 1.53% rise in the broader markets.