Stocks to watch amid the threat of a major East Coast port strike this week

A large strike at East Coast ports could begin on October 1 unless a new contract is approved by the International Longshoremen’s Association. As many as 36 East Coast and Gulf Coast ports could be impacted. Reports indicate that negotiations are still stalled on issues such as wages, benefits, and port automation. The ILA union has not been on strike since 1977.

Every week that cargo is stalled and backlogs created could take as long as a month to clear because West Coast ports are already operating at near capacity, according to Oxford Economics. Analysts have warned that U.S. retailers, automakers, and other businesses across various sectors could face higher freight rates as they make contingency plans for inventory. C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) warned that contingency routes could become overwhelmed rapidly if a port strike is not resolved quickly. Major shipping lines like such as Maersk (OTCPK:AMKBY), Hapag-Lloyd (OTCPK:HPGLY), and CMA CGM are reportedly already implementing surcharges due to the surge in demand.

J.P. Morgan analyst Brian Ossenbeck said he would be surprised if an East Coast port strike lasted longer than a week. However, the firm warned that in the best worst-case scenario, consumers could face higher prices or empty shelves for certain products.

Many companies have been proactive with their inventory to be ready for a disruption. During Costco’s (COST) earnings call (transcript) management said the port strike is something the retailer has been watching very closely for some time.

“We’ve got contingency plans, we’ve cleared the ports, we’ve pre-shipped. We’ve done several different things that we could to get holiday goods in, ahead of this time frame, and looked at alternate plans that we could execute with moving goods to different ports and coming across the country if needed. It could be disruptive based on how impactful, I can’t tell you until we know length and what could happen out there. But it is in our sights.”

There is still the risk that retailers like Costco (COST) end up with either too much or too little inventory for the holiday season. The developments over the next week with the port strike could have a major impact on how the Q4 earnings season plays out for retailers Walmart (WMT), Amazon (AMZN), Target (TGT), Mattel (MAT), Hasbro (HAS), Home Depot (HD), TJX Companies (TJX), Best Buy (BBY), BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), Kohl’s (KSS), Ross Stores (ROST), Dollar General (DG), PepsiCo (PEP), and other consumer-facing companies. Tech importers Samsung electronics (OTCPK:SSNLF) and LG Electronics have also been singled out as companies that could feel a negative impact. In the auto sector, General Motors (GM) and Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF) are on watch.

On the flip side, Piper Sandler advised recently that Terreno (TRNO) and Lineage (LINE) could benefit from port congestion since there are virtually no alternative ports and pricing power potentially would increase for the warehouse owners. Other analysts have pointed to the potential for a quick relief rally for trucking and freight logistics stocks such as Heartland Express (HTLD), RXO (RXO), Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX), XPO (XPO), and Werner Enterprises (WERN) if there is a quick resolution and the holiday trucking rush picks back up.