Morgan Stanley expects Tesla (TSLA) to meaningfully increase its robotaxi fleet size in 2026. While Tesla (TSLA) has largely taken a cautious approach to scaling robotaxi operations in Austin and San Francisco, the company was noted to be making progress in removing its safety monitor.
Analyst Andrew Percoco and his team expect the company to increase its fleet size to 1,000 vehicles on the road in 2026, up from between 50 and 150 on the road today. By the end of 2035, Morgan Stanley expects Tesla (TSLA) to have one million robotaxis on the road across multiple cities.
Percoco also laid out the three most important catalysts to watch for as an indication that Tesla’s (TSLA) robotaxi dreams are on track.
“(1) Opening robotaxi to the public, without a safety monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day. (2) Improvement in safety metrics without the safety monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the safety monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026. (3) Cybercab start ofproduction, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductionsand thus accelerating adoption over time.”
Morgan Stanley has an Equal-weight rating on Tesla (TSLA) and a price target of $425.
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) drifted 0.6% lower in premarket trading on Tuesday to $472.52.