These stocks could have an edge with college football and the NFL starting back up

The 2024 college football season officially begins Saturday when a Florida State-Georgia Tech matchup in Ireland kicks off the light first weekend of the season. The extended Labor Day holiday period (August 29-September 2) will see a full slate of college football games. College football betting volume is expected to set records again after realignment saw the Big 10 (Oregon, Washington, UCLA, and USC) and SEC (Texas, Oklahoma) add high-profile teams and generate buzz. The NFL season begins on September 5 when the Baltimore Ravens play the Kansas City Chiefs. The NFL is also sparking high betting interest amid various storylines such as a rush of new rookie quarterbacks, the Chicago Bears profiled on HBO’s Hard Knocks, and a lingering Taylor Swift-effect as some new customers from the 2024 Super Bowl are re-engaged.

For investors, one of the key storylines of the football season will be if promotions are held in check enough to continue a recent strong trend. The U.S. sports betting hold rate of 11.5% in July was the highest of the year and compared favorably to the 10.5% hold rate in July 2023 and 9.0% in July 2022. The year-to-date hold rate of 9.5% is easily the highest since the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act was repealed in 2018. Sportsbooks are expected to lean on parlays and prop bets to boost their hold rates this football season.

DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) will be one of the biggest stocks to watch as the football season plays out. The sports betting stock has a track record of gaining about 5% during the football season to outpace the broad market. “With the 2024 NFL season starting on September 5th and DKNG’s share price down 32% from its $50 high in March, this year’s potential return over this seasonally significant window could be meaningful,” advised Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey. He also pointed to DraftKings’s (DKNG) improved outlook, new user growth, traditional tax mitigation strategies, and valuation contraction. Needham’s Bernie McTernan highlighted that DraftKings (DKNG) has turned into a battleground stock ahead of the football rush, as some investors have remained positive, while others have doubts given competition and a tax increase on sports-betting operators in Illinois. “Within this market, we believe DKNG has a sustainable customer acquisition strategy that should continue to drive its first- or second-place position in all states,” wrote McTernan. “We expect margins to scale with from tech stack ownership, benefits of national vs local marketing and reaching terminal market access penetration,” he added. Bank of America reminded investors that DraftKings (DKNG) typically closes its hold rate gap to FanDuel during the football season. “We think DKNG is still well-positioned to execute during 2H and NFL season where it tends to excel, and see both easier hold comps ahead and strong handle share growth in Q2 as positive signs,” updated analyst Shaun Kelley. Read breakdowns on DraftKings from Seeking Alpha analysts.

Electronic Arts (EA) is also being watched closely after the strong start for its College Football 25 game. EA Sports College Football 25 debuted as the best-selling game of 2024 so far, and was the primary driver of both content and hardware growth on console platforms. Notably, Electronic Arts (EA) has an Investor Day scheduled for September 17, which is seen as a potential opportunity to further articulate the company’s growth vision. Read breakdowns on EA from Seeking Alpha analysts.

Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) is still flying a bit under the radar, despite its relatively new U.S. listing and the leading position of FanDuel in online sports betting market share. FanDuel also passed DraftKings (DKNG) in one of the key metrics of the sports betting industry. According to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, FanDuel’s average revenue per monthly active user was higher than DKNG’s in June, due partially to a shift in its player base from daily fantasy sports to the casino sector. FanDuel may have also scored some points with customers when it decided not to follow DKNG in imposing a surcharge on winning sports wagers in states with high tax rates. Read breakdowns on Flutter from Seeking Alpha analysts.

Penn Entertainment (PENN) is looking to generate excitement around ESPN Bet this football season. With its Q2 earnings report, PENN reported a narrower-than-expected loss for the Interactive segment that includes ESPN Bet. “Ongoing momentum with user acquisition for ESPN BET was complemented by improved monetization and lower promotional intensity during the quarter, driving a 65% sequential increase in adj. digital gaming revenue despite a seasonally slower sports calendar,” updated Canaccord Genuity. In an attempt to carve out market share, PENN has rolled out upgrades to its ESPN BET app and introduced additional enhancements, including a rebranding of its same game parlay functionality and improved merchandising of parlays on the home page. Read breakdowns on PENN from Seeking Alpha analysts.

The impact of the football season extends well beyond just the sports betting sector. Other companies that mentioned during their recent earnings conference that football could be a potential catalyst for various reasons, include Caesars Entertainment (CZR), Disney (DIS), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Fox Corporation (FOX), Genius Sports (GENI), Loop Media (OTC:LPTV), Nexstar Media Group (NXST), Under Armour (UAA), Netflix (NFLX), Paramount Global (PARA), Dine Brands Global (DIN), YETI Holdings (YETI), and Portillo’s (PTLO).

The start of the football season is not expected to be a significant macroeconomic factor, although periods of high betting action have also coincided with higher credit card balances, less available credit, a reduction in net investments, and an increase in lottery play, according to a recent published study.