Trump’s energy bill reshapes clean tech winners and losers: Mizuho

A sweeping new clean energy policy under President Trump, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), is sending shockwaves through the U.S. renewables sector, reshuffling market expectations and prompting analyst downgrades for several solar names.

According to a note from Mizuho Securities analyst Maheep Mandloi, the OBBB shifts federal support decisively away from utility-scale solar and toward energy storage, nuclear power, fuel cells and domestic manufacturing. At the same time, the bill accelerates the expiration of tax incentives for solar and wind, introduces tighter compliance rules and imposes new restrictions on Chinese-linked supply chains.

Winners and losers

Mandloi’s top picks in the new policy landscape include First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) and Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN), three companies poised to benefit from expanded subsidies and favorable technology mandates.

Meanwhile, he downgraded Fluence Energy (NASDAQ:FLNC), Nextracker (NASDAQ:NXT), Shoals Technologies (NASDAQ:SHLS) and Enlight Renewable Energy (NASDAQ:ENLT) due to increased policy headwinds and market saturation risks.

Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN), a leader in residential solar leasing, saw its price target jump 62% to $21 as OBBB reinstates the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for leases through 2030. However, outright purchases, previously backed by the 25D tax credit, will lose support after 2025, dealing a blow to inverter manufacturers tied to solar loans like Enphase (NASDAQ:ENPH) and SolarEdge (NASDAQ:SEDG).

Utility solar dims under new timelines

While the bill allows full tax credit eligibility for projects that begin construction by July 2026, the actual construction deadlines and interconnection bottlenecks may limit the sector’s ability to accelerate deployments, Mandloi warned. Trump’s recent executive order further complicates eligibility, as it directs the Treasury Department to tighten “safe harbor” provisions, potentially raising capital thresholds or adding permitting requirements.

As a result, Mizuho cut its rating on Nextracker (NASDAQ:NXT) and Shoals (NASDAQ:SHLS) to Neutral from a previous rating of Outperform and shaved Nextracker’s (NXT) price target 3% to $65. The team also reduced its outlook for Englight (NASDAQ:ENLT) to Underperform from Neutral.

Manufacturing and storage get a lift

Domestic clean energy manufacturers, especially those outside China’s supply chain, are expected to benefit the most under OBBB. The 45X manufacturing tax credit remains intact, and anti-China provisions limit eligibility for companies deemed “Foreign Entities of Concern” (FEOCs), including those linked to China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

First Solar and Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ) are positioned to gain, with U.S.-based factories now qualifying for subsidies. Mizuho raised Canadian Solar’s (NASDAQ:CSIQ) target by 13% to $17 and First Solar’s (NASDAQ:FSLR) by 1% to $278.

Energy storage also retained its ITC eligibility through 2033. While Chinese firms dominate battery supply chains, domestic integrators like Fluence Energy stand to benefit in the short term. However, Mandloi warns that competition could intensify within a year or two as new entrants localize production. FLNC’s price target was raised 67% to $10, but the stock was downgraded to Neutral.

Fuel cells and nuclear find favor

In a surprise move, the bill reinstates the 30% ITC for natural gas-powered fuel cells, supporting companies like Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE), which saw its target raised 19% to $31. Meanwhile, new nuclear technologies also receive extended tax credit support through 2033, with Mandloi identifying the space as a long-term winner under OBBB.

Broader implications for clean tech

While the OBBB preserves manufacturing credits and energy storage incentives, the accelerated wind-down of solar and wind support is likely to prompt a short-lived demand surge followed by a more uncertain outlook. Mandloi expects a 20% demand boost ahead of the 2026 sunset date, followed by a 20% contraction thereafter.

The bill also significantly curtails Chinese access to U.S. clean energy subsidies, posing challenges for companies reliant on Chinese-made batteries or solar panels. With Beijing controlling up to 85% of the global battery cell supply chain, supply diversification will be key to maintaining eligibility.