U.S. HVAC shipments show mixed trends in May amid heat pump growth

U.S. shipments of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning equipment saw mixed performance in May, with strong gains in gas furnaces and heat pumps offsetting declines in air conditioner sales, according to new data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute.

Steady growth in residential water heaters

In the residential market, shipments of gas storage water heaters rose 3.0% year-over-year to 354,211 units in May 2025, up from 343,908 units in May 2024. Electric storage water heaters posted a smaller gain, rising 1.3% to 445,287 units.

Year-to-date, gas water heater shipments are up 1.1%, totaling 1,892,657 units. Electric units, however, have dipped 1.0%, with 2,214,714 units shipped so far in 2025.

Commercial water heater shipments see diverging trends

Commercial gas storage water heater shipments rose 3.0% in May to 7,605 units, compared to 7,380 a year earlier. Electric models saw a more robust increase, climbing 10.1% to 15,617 units.

Despite the May gains, year-to-date shipments of commercial gas water heaters are down 3.2% to 38,731 units. Commercial electric units have risen 3.8% to 73,264 over the same period.

Gas furnaces lead heating category surge

Gas warm air furnaces posted the strongest year-over-year growth in May, with shipments rising 15.7% to 283,691 units from 245,283 a year earlier. Oil furnaces also rose 17.9% to 1,667 units.

The furnace sector continues to lead in year-to-date growth: gas furnace shipments are up 18.8% to 1,377,374 units, while oil furnaces increased 12.5% to 11,466.

Heat pumps gain ground as air conditioner shipments decline

Total shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps declined 5.4% in May, totaling 862,129 units versus 911,517 in May 2024. The drop was driven by a 13.0% plunge in air conditioner shipments, which fell to 474,519 units.

In contrast, air-source heat pumps rose 5.9% to 387,610 units in May.

Year-to-date, combined shipments of air conditioners and heat pumps are up 2.8% to 3,736,372 units. Heat pump shipments have surged 9.5% to 1,713,388 units, while air conditioners have slipped 2.3% to 2,022,984 units.