Boeing’s (BA) 787 production appears to be gaining momentum after a seasonal holiday slowdown, according to a UBS analysis that tracks Dreamlifter cargo flights as a leading indicator of aircraft assembly activity.
In a January 16 note, UBS analyst Gavin Parsons said Dreamlifter flights over the 30-day period ending January 9 jumped 69% year over year, implying an annualized 787 production rate of about 5.4 aircraft a month. Before the typical year-end slowdown, flights briefly reached an implied rate of 7.4 aircraft a month, the first time that level has been observed since December 2020.
January has begun particularly strongly, with the second week of the year recording 18 Dreamlifter flights, the highest weekly total for that period since before the pandemic, UBS said. Boeing (BA) uses four modified 747 Dreamlifters to transport large structural components of the 787, which is now assembled exclusively in Charleston, South Carolina. Historically, Dreamlifter activity has closely tracked underlying production trends.
Parsons noted that first flights of completed aircraft, a lagging indicator, are currently running at roughly eight a month. That gap between Dreamlifter flights and first flights suggests Boeing (BA) may still be drawing down existing 787 inventory, with parts shipments beginning to catch up to targeted build rates. UBS expects the two indicators to converge in coming months as production stabilizes.
The analysis also suggests supplier deliveries are approaching Boeing’s (BA) near-term goals.
“It also suggests the steady stream of parts from suppliers is close to Boeing’s (BA) target of eight per month production this year,” Parsons wrote.
On deliveries, data from Cirium and Planespotters show two 787s delivered so far in January. Boeing (BA) has previously said it is stabilizing production at seven aircraft a month and plans to move to eight a month in 2026, with a longer-term goal of reaching 10 a month.
UBS models a 6.5-per-month delivery rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, rising to eight a month by the first quarter of 2026, exiting 2026 at nine a month and reaching 10 a month by early 2027. UBS rates Boeing (BA) shares a Buy, with a 12-month price target of $275, representing about 11% upside from recent levels.