UBS updates its ‘election watch’ stocks to match new winning probabilities

UBS analysts have updated their list of U.S. stocks that would benefit in the two probable scenarios this upcoming election.

In mid-August, UBS analysts revised their projections for the U.S. election outcome “to reflect the rising probability of a win by Vice President Harris.”

Analysts see a 40% probability that VP Kamala Harris will win with a divided congress: a Republican Senate and a Democratic House. After that, they see a 35% probability it would be a “red sweep” with a Trump victory and a unified congress.

“Investors looking for ways to insulate portfolios from election-related volatility can consider adding exposure to gold (GLD) and the Swiss franc (FXF) — both seen as hedging assets by the market,” wrote David Lefkowitz, chief investment officer and head of U.S. Equities.

Analysts updated the baskets of select stocks they believe would benefit most from a Trump or a Harris victory.

These can be used “to hedge election-related risks or express tactical election views,” they said.

This is the updated U.S. stock basket for a Harris/GOP Senate/Dem House:

• Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
• Eaton Corp. (ETN)
• Johnson Controls International Plc (JCI)
• Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)
• Republic Services Inc. (RSG)
• Sunrun Inc. (RUN)
• Trane Technologies (TT)
• Waste Management Inc. (WM)
• First Solar Inc. (FSLR)
• Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD)
• NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE)

And this is the updated U.S. stock basket for a “red sweep”

• Ford Motors Co. (GM)
• Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO)
• ConocoPhillips (COP)
• Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG)
• Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
• Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
• Discover Financial Services (DFS)
• Evercore Inc. Class A (EVR)
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
• KeyCorp (KEY)
• Lazard Inc. (LAZ)
• Morgan Stanley (MS)
• Synchrony Financial (SYF)
• Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)
• Humana Inc. (HUM)
• Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY)
• Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK)
• UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)
• Deere & Co. (DE)
• Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)
• Intel Corp. (INTC)
• KLA Corp. (KLAC)
• Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)
• Nucor Corp. (NUE)
• Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD)

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• Is it time to make portfolio changes before the 2024 U.S. election?
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