UnitedHealth faces critical test as Q2 results loom

UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) will report Q2 results on Tuesday, July 29, in what is shaping up to be one of its most consequential earnings calls in years.

The health insurer is expected to post EPS of $4.49, down 34% Y/Y, on revenue of $111.6B, up 12.8%. But investors are less focused on the numbers and more on what comes next.

UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) shares have plunged nearly 44% year-to-date, following a steep decline in earnings from its core Medicare Advantage and Optum Health physician businesses — a downturn that triggered the sudden resignation of CEO Andrew Witty and the reinstatement of Stephen Hemsley at the helm.

The company also suspended its 2025 guidance at the time, citing rising medical costs, while ongoing civil and criminal DOJ investigations into its Medicare billing practices have added regulatory uncertainty to its operational challenges.

A key issue is the profit slump at Optum Health, its vast physician network that once gave UnitedHealth an edge in Medicare Advantage. A recent policy change (V28) has made it harder to bill for services, and analysts want clarity on how the company plans to stabilize Optum and restore margins.

With no upward EPS revisions and multiple estimate downgrades, expectations are already low. But investors will be watching closely for updated full-year guidance, and a clear plan for navigating regulatory probes and Medicare headwinds. Analysts call for an annual EPS of $21.01 on revenue of $449.07B.

Ahead of its upcoming earnings release, UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) acknowledged in a SEC filing that it is under both criminal and civil investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice over its Medicare billing practices—a revelation that adds further pressure on the insurer amid already intense scrutiny.

Despite the turmoil, UnitedHealth has a strong track record: over the past two years, it has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time.

Fellow managed care insurers Humana (HUM), Elevance Health (ELV), Centene (CNC), and Molina (MOH) have also traded lower year-to-date amid broader concerns about Medicare profitability and rising medical costs.

Just last week, Centene (CNC) posted a rare earnings miss — its first in four years — highlighting the broader pressures weighing on managed care providers as they navigate reimbursement changes and higher utilization rates.