UnitedHealth Group’s (UNH) guidance will be in focus during its quarterly results on Tuesday, as investors look for clear signs of recovery from the managed care bellwether following a tumultuous 2025.
Wall Street expects the Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based firm to post EPS of $2.11, while revenue is expected to grow 12.8% to $113.73 billion.
UnitedHealth Group went through several setbacks last year that included a cyberattack at its tech unit, the killing of its insurance unit head, higher medical costs, and a federal investigation. The stock, with a market capitalization of over $300 billion, has lost over 30% last year, vastly underperforming the solid 16% gain in the broader S&P 500 Index.
However, the return of Stephen Hemsley as the top boss in May, especially after a disappointing quarterly result in April, boosted confidence in many investors, who are hoping for a turnaround in the company’s fortune.
Earlier in October, the health insurer raised its full-year earnings outlook and said it is expecting margin improvement and a return to growth in 2026. The company added that it sees “sustainable double-digit growth beginning in 2027 and advancing from there.”
The latest bouts of news about UnitedHealth, which included rebating profits from ACA plans to customers, also got positive response from investors. The stock showed over 5% growth so far this year.
Seeking Alpha and Wall Street analysts are bullish and rated the stock a Buy. However, Seeking Alpha’s Quant rating considers it a cautious Hold.
Evercore analyst Elizabeth Anderson said the managed care sector is positioned to face utilization trends that will remain elevated throughout 2026. UnitedHealth received an Outperform rating from the brokerage based on gradually improving MA margins, strong pricing actions for the 2026 plan year, and a successful turnaround strategy by the company’s management.
“While I acknowledge that some caution is deserved after UNH’s recovery from the 2025 lows, I’m still confident that we have seen the worst in its outlook, even though we have to be patient for a further upswing in sentiments,” noted a recent Seeking Alpha analysis by JR Research.
Over the last two years, UnitedHealth has beaten both revenue and EPS estimates 75% of the time.
Over the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 13 upward revisions, compared to 10 downward revisions, while revenue estimates have been revised upwards six times versus 11 downward moves.