The two biggest U.S. card payment networks — Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) — are set to release on Thursday their earnings for the last quarter of the calendar year, providing further data on how well consumer spending is holding up.
From the data already released tracking holiday spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of 2025’s last quarter, the news is good. The National Retail Federation calculates that holiday sales rose 4.1% Y/Y for the period spanning Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025. Adobe’s data shows online holiday spending rose 6.8% Y/Y for the same period. Visa’s (V) preliminary data for a seven-week period starting Nov. 1 saw an overall 4.2% Y/Y increase across all payment types, while online spending rose 7.8%.
Mastercard (MA) will report Q4 earnings Thursday before the market opens. It’s expected to post adjusted EPS of $4.24, according to the average analyst estimate, compared with $4.38 in Q3 and $3.82 in Q4 2024. Revenue is expected to rise to $8.78B from $8.60B in Q3 and $7.49B in the year-ago quarter.
Total gross dollar volume is projected to grow 9.7% Y/Y to $2.81T, according to the Visible Alpha consensus. Payment network revenue is expected to climb 13% to $4.98B, according to the Visible Alpha estimate.
Visa (V) will release its fiscal Q1 earnings on Thursday after the market closes. It’s expected to post adjusted EPS of $3.14 for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025, up from $2.98 in Q4 FY2025 and $2.75 in Q1 2025. The consensus estimate for Q1 revenue is $10.7B, vs. $10.7B in the prior quarter and $9.51B in the year-ago quarter.
Visa Inc. payment volume is expected to rise 8.7% Y/Y to $3.83T, according to the Visible Alpha consensus, with processed transactions up 9.3% to 69.7B.
In December, Bank of America Securities upgraded Visa (V) to Buy from Neutral, pointing out that the company is one of six in the S&P 500 that produces over 10% revenue growth, double-digit EPS growth, and an operating margin exceeding 50% in the past year.
The number of swipe fees that the companies get from traffic on their networks likely won’t be the only point of focus. During Mastercard and Visa’s earnings calls, analysts are likely to ask about regulatory pressures the companies are facing with the introduction of the Credit Card Competition Act that’s intended to control swipe fees. Both companies’ stocks also dipped after President Donald Trump proposed a 10% interest rate cap on credit cards for a year.
Both regulatory actions could have unintended negative consequences on consumer spending, said Citi analyst Bryan Keane, who has Buy ratings on both Visa and Mastercard.
For his expectations on the two networks, Keane sees CY4Q25 payment volumes “trending relatively consistent with the prior quarter (in-line with expectations and cross-border volumes & VAS [value-added services] revenues expected to remain supportive of growth targets).”
On guidance, Citi expects “Visa to reiterate its FY26 guidance, and MA to set low double digits to high-end of low double digits non-GAAP adjusted constant currency Y/Y revenue and operating expense growth for FY26.”
Treading Softly, investing group leader of The Dividend Kings, sees Mastercard’s (MA) 28.4 forward 12-month P/E ratio as warranted due to its “vigorous” growth profile. “If Mastercard lives up to growth expectations and reverts to fair value, it could have a 13% total return potential in 2026. By the end of 2030, Mastercard could generate nearly 16% annual total returns,” the investing group leader said. Mastercard’s (MA) risks, though, include increasing regulatory pressures and the potential for a major cyber breach, according to the article.
SA Analyst Perseus Perspectives keeps a Buy rating on Visa (V), despite the regulatory headwinds from the proposed interest rate cap and the competition bill, noting that the company’s exposure to interest rate caps is limited. “Its revenue is mainly from transaction processing, not direct lending,” the analyst wrote. Regarding the rate cap, the likely outcome is a compromise between industry and the White House, “which will give up a little bit in order for a political victory to be scored.” Perseus Perspectives’ confidence in Visa’s business model remains strong.
Despite the drama over the regulatory threats, Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch sees a low probability that the measures will be implemented. That, along with Visa’s (V) and Mastercard’s (MA) solid underlying fundamentals, creates “a particularly attractive risk/reward setup heading into earnings (similar to volatility caused by the Durbin Act in 2010),” he wrote in a note to clients. Frisch has In Line ratings for both companies.