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Vistra (NYSE:VST) +2% but Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) -1% in Thursday’s trading after both companies posted strong Q2 results (I, II), although Vistra CEO Jim Burke told shareholders that he believes the company can sign big deals this year for the electricity from its power plants.
Vistra (NYSE:VST) said Q2 adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations fell slightly to $1.35B from $1.41 in the year-earlier quarter, hurt partly by unplanned plant outages, which helped push operating expenses 17% higher to $733M, and reaffirmed FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations guidance of $5.5B-$6.1B.
For FY 2026, Vistra (NYSE:VST) raised guidance for adjusted EBITDA midpoint forecast to ~$6.8B, excluding contributions from the seven natural gas plants it acquired in May, and said it expects to add more than 600 MW of nuclear generation by mid-2030 to support rising electricity needs, particularly from data centers and AI-related industrial growth.
Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) reported total Q2 operating revenue of $6.1B, up from $5.48B in the year-earlier quarter and well above the $4.9B analysts consensus estimate, while operating expenses rose 17.7% Y/Y to $5.15B, while its nuclear fleet produced 45,170 GWh, down from 45,314 GWh a year ago, due to higher non-refueling outage days compared to last year.
Constellation (NASDAQ:CEG) also reaffirmed its full-year adjusted operating earnings guidance of $8.90-$9.60/share, but investors may have expected more, as the FactSet analyst consensus called for earnings guidance of $9.39/share, above the $9.25 midpoint released by the company.
One likely reason Vistra (VST) shares are outperforming Constellation (CEG) following earnings, according to Avi Salzman at Barron’s, is that Vistra’s executives are optimistic they will sign lucrative deals for electricity by the end of this year.
Vistra’s (VST) Burke told an analyst about “a ton of interest in Comanche Peak” nuclear plant in Texas, and that the company also has received interest for other projects; if a deal actually is signed by year-end, Vistra could be poised for much higher earnings growth, Salzman said.