Beef prices in 2026 are forecast to remain near record highs next year due to ongoing cattle herd shortages, tight supply chains, and resilient demand. The most important factor with beef prices is the U.S. cattle herd, which has reached a 70-year low due to persistent drought and higher feed costs, which have pushed ranchers to reduce herd sizes and limit beef supply. Industry insiders have noted that there has been minimal heifer retention, which is required for herd expansion, meaning supply constraints will likely continue throughout 2026 and perhaps even into 2027 or later. Meanwhile, USDA projections suggest beef production will fall another 2% in 2026 following an estimated 4% decline in 2025, maintaining pressure on prices.
While the USDA announced a plan to strengthen the American beef industry by improving the ranching business by expanding grazing access and support for veterans and beginning ranchers and reducing inspection costs for small processors, Bank of America reminded investors that the plan has no short-term impact on the US cattle cycle, since the herd needs time to be rebuilt, and the plan is not enough to ignite an accelerated heifer retention movement.
Of course, tariff increases, particularly on imports from major suppliers like Brazil, Canada, and Mexico, have also driven up costs for processors and consumers. Last week, the White House rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including beef, by removing a 10% reciprocal tariff, although other layers of tariffs remain in place.
The last CPI report was for September and showed that beef had the biggest jump in prices compared to a year ago. Uncooked ground beef (+12.9% year-over-year), uncooked beef roasts (+18.4%), and uncooked beef steaks (16.6%) all showed elevated prices.
So far, despite high beef prices, demand has remained robust, also putting upward pressure on prices and dampening the effect of high costs on consumption levels. The question remains if retailers and food processors may attempt to hold package prices steady through operational efficiencies or pass on more price increases.
Omaha Steaks CEO Nate Rempe issued a warning on beef prices during a Fox Business interview on Friday. “So we are headed for what I’m calling the $10-a-pound reality by the third quarter of ’26,” he stated. “Families are going to see $10-a-pound ground beef in the grocery store,” he added.
A broad list of companies impacted by beef prices includes JBS N.V. (JBS), Kroger (KR), Albertsons (ACI), Walmart (WMT), Tyson Foods (TSN), Hormel (HRL), Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Performance Food Group Company (PFGC), Shake Shack (SHAK), Yum! Brands (YUM), McDonald’s (MCD), Wendy’s (WEN), Restaurant Brands International (QSR), and Beyond Meat (BYND).