Amazon: Overvalued If Recession Hits, With Huge Momentum Trading Shift Underway

Summary:

  • Amazon experienced a significant selloff on August 2nd, 2024, with worse-than-expected guidance, possibly indicating a general downturn in U.S. consumer/business spending trends is next.
  • Technical indicators suggest a period of lower quotes and consolidation may be ahead, similar to previous instances of heavy selling.
  • Amazon’s stretched valuation, a potential recession, and substandard retail profit margins point to sizable downside investment risks.

Train Derailment, May 22 1995

hotforphotog/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

I will say the obvious out loud, Friday’s selloff (August 2nd, 2024) on weaker management guidance for Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) (NEOE:AMZN:CA) was something of a train wreck for bulls


Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am short Big Tech, including Amazon, through their heavy weightings in the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 indexes. I am bearishly positioned in both indexes through derivatives.

This writing is for educational and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed herein are not investment recommendations and are not meant to be relied upon in investment decisions. The author is not acting in an investment advisor capacity and is not a registered investment advisor. The author recommends investors consult a qualified investment advisor before making any trade. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates herein are forward-looking statements based upon certain assumptions that should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur. This article is not an investment research report, but an opinion written at a point in time. The author's opinions expressed herein address only a small cross-section of data related to an investment in securities mentioned. Any analysis presented is based on incomplete information and is limited in scope and accuracy. The information and data in this article are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The author expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the service and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained herein. Any and all opinions, estimates, and conclusions are based on the author's best judgment at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The author undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional materials. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *