Cisco Is A Steal, But So Are These 2 Better Dividend Aristocrat Bargains

Summary:

  • A 5th bear market rally has likely started, but it’s likely to fail within a few weeks. But history is clear, selling now is almost certainly a big mistake.
  • World-beater high-yield Ultra sleep well at night (Ultra SWAN) blue-chips are a great way to stay sane and safe for the final phase of this bear market.
  • Cisco is one of the world’s best companies, with a very wide and stable moat, AA-credit rating, and a very safe and steadily growing 3.6% yield from this tech utility.
  • But BTI and TROW are faster-growing, high-yielding aristocrat alternatives that can combine with CSCO to generate a nearly 5% very safe yield, A-credit rating, and 15% annual long-term returns.
  • TROW yields a very safe 4.3% yield, is expected to deliver 17% long-term returns, and could double in five years. BTI pays a very safe 6.8% yield, is expected to deliver 17% long-term returns, and could triple in five years.

Lucky man

DragonImages

The 5th bear market rally may be underway.

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CNBC

The stock market is up about 4% in the last two days, most likely a short-term relief rally caused by bonds being the most oversold in recent history.

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Daily Shot

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CME Group

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NY Fed

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Daily Shot

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Cleveland Fed

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Charlie Bilello

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earnings presentation

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Gurufocus Premium

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YCharts

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Gurufocus Premium

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(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)

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(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)

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(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)

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(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)

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Charts

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(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)

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FAST Graphs, FactSet

Investment Strategy Yield LT Consensus Growth LT Consensus Total Return Potential Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns Years To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth

10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return

REITs 3.9% 6.1% 10.0% 7.0% 4.7% 15.3 1.58
Cisco 3.7% 7.5% 11.2% 7.8% 5.6% 13.0 1.72
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF 3.6% 8.80% 12.4% 8.7% 6.4% 11.3 1.86
Dividend Aristocrats 2.8% 8.7% 11.5% 8.1% 5.8% 12.5 1.75
S&P 500 1.9% 8.5% 10.4% 7.3% 5.0% 14.4 1.63

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Portfolio Visualizer Premium

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Portfolio Visualizer Premium

Portfolio 2011 Income Per $1000 Investment 2022 Income Per $1000 Investment Annual Income Growth Starting Yield

2022 Yield On Cost

S&P 500 $21 $60 10.01% 2.1% 6.0%
Cisco $12 $103 21.58% 1.2% 10.3%

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(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)

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(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)

Metric Historical Fair Value Multiples (12 years) 2021 2022 2023 2024

12-Month Forward Fair Value

5-Year Average Yield 2.97% $49.83 $51.18 $51.18 $52.53
Earnings 14.10 $46.25 $48.36 $51.18 $55.84
Average $47.97 $49.73 $51.18 $54.13 $50.59
Current Price $41.29

Discount To Fair Value

13.93% 16.97% 19.33% 23.72% 18.38%
Upside To Fair Value 16.19% 20.44% 23.95% 31.10% 26.20%
2022 EPS 2023 EPS 2022 Weighted EPS 2023 Weighted EPS 12-Month Forward EPS 12-Month Average Fair Value Forward PE

Current Forward PE

$3.43 $3.63 $0.73 $2.86 $3.59 14.1 11.5

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DK

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(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)

Metric British American Tobacco
Quality 84% 13/13 Ultra SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) Global Aristocrat
Risk Rating Low Risk
DK Master List Quality Ranking (Out Of 500 Companies) 166
Quality Percentile 67%
Dividend Growth Streak (Years) 22+
Dividend Yield 6.8%
Payout Safety Score 82%
Average Recession Dividend Cut Risk 0.5%
Severe Recession Dividend Cut Risk 1.95%
S&P Credit Rating

BBB+ Negative Outlook

30-Year Bankruptcy Risk 5.00%
Consensus LT Risk-Management Industry Percentile 72% Good
Fair Value $60.28
Current Price $36.59
Discount To Fair Value 39%
DK Rating

Potentially Ultra Value, Buffett-style table-pounding strong buy

PE 7.8
Cash-Adjusted PE 8.2
Growth Priced In -0.6%
Historical PE 13 to 14
LT Growth Consensus/Management Guidance 10.4%
PEG Ratio 0.78
5-year consensus total return potential

23% to 28% CAGR

Base Case 5-year consensus return potential

24% CAGR (5X better than the S&P 500)

Consensus 12-month total return forecast 43%
Fundamentally Justified 12-Month Return Potential 72%
LT Consensus Total Return Potential 17.2%
Inflation-Adjusted Consensus LT Return Potential 14.9%
Consensus 10-Year Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Potential (Ignoring Valuation) 4.01
LT Risk-Adjusted Expected Return 11.44%
LT Risk-And Inflation-Adjusted Return Potential 9.15%
Conservative Years To Double 7.87 Vs. 15.2 S&P 500

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(Source: earnings presentation)

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(Source: earnings presentation)

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FactSet Research Terminal

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(FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)

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(FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)

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Portfolio Visualizer Premium

Investment Strategy Yield LT Consensus Growth LT Consensus Total Return Potential Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns Years To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth

10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return

British American Tobacco 6.8% 10.4% 17.2% 12.0% 9.8% 7.4 2.54
T. Rowe Price 4.3% 12.6% 16.9% 11.8% 9.5% 7.5 2.49
Cisco 3.7% 7.5% 11.2% 7.8% 5.6% 13.0 1.72
S&P 500 1.9% 8.5% 10.4% 7.3% 5.0% 14.4 1.63

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DK

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Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool

Metric T. Rowe Price
Quality 93% 13/13 Ultra SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) Dividend Aristocrat
Risk Rating Low Risk
DK Master List Quality Ranking (Out Of 500 Companies) 49
Quality Percentile 90%
Dividend Growth Streak (Years) 36
Dividend Yield 4.3%
Dividend Safety Score 97%
Average Recession Dividend Cut Risk 0.5%
Severe Recession Dividend Cut Risk 1.15%
S&P Credit Rating

Effective AAA Outlook (net cash balance sheet)

30-Year Bankruptcy Risk 0.07%
Consensus LT Risk-Management Industry Percentile 75% Good
Fair Value $125.62
Current Price $112.19
Discount To Fair Value 11%
DK Rating

Potentially Good Buy

PE 13.5
Cash-Adjusted PE 9.5
Growth Priced In 2.0%
Historical PE 15 to 17
LT Growth Consensus/Management Guidance 12.6%
PEG Ratio 0.75
5-year consensus total return potential

12% to 29% CAGR

Base Case 5-year consensus return potential

15% CAGR (2X the S&P 500)

Consensus 12-month total return forecast -2%
Fundamentally Justified 12-Month Return Potential 16%
LT Consensus Total Return Potential 16.9%
Inflation-Adjusted Consensus LT Return Potential 14.6%
Consensus 10-Year Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Potential (Ignoring Valuation) 3.91
LT Risk-Adjusted Expected Return 11.82%
LT Risk-And Inflation-Adjusted Return Potential 9.53%
Conservative Years To Double 7.55

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(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)

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(FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)

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(FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)

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DK

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Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool

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Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool

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Portfolio Visualizer Premium


Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CSCO, BTI, TROW either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Dividend Kings owns CSCO, BTI, and TROW in our portfolios.


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