Fiverr: This Company Keeps Losing Buyers

Summary:

  • Despite a Q3 beat-and-raise, Fiverr faces significant risks from AI competition, volatile traffic, and a shrinking active buyer base.
  • Fiverr’s growth is driven by take rate expansion, not sustainable long-term drivers, and the SMB buying environment remains cautious.
  • Attractive valuation multiples can’t offset the existential risks from AI and declining marketplace activity; I recommend staying on the sidelines.
  • Fiverr’s Q3 revenue grew 8% y/y, but active buyers slipped 9% y/y, indicating underlying marketplace challenges despite improved adjusted EBITDA margins.
  • The stock trades at attractive valuation multiples (2x FY25 revenue and 9x FY25 adjusted EBITDA), but it’s a value trap for a company that is in secular decline.

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10’000 Hours

So far, through the early innings of the Q3 earnings season, investors have tended to take a favorable view of most companies’ earnings prints, especially where top-line revenue trends have bucked macro concerns and shown strength or even acceleration. And yet, we have to


Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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