Jim Simons, One Of The Greatest Traders In History, Is Buying Amazon With Both Hands

Summary:

  • Jim Simons is considered by most sources the greatest trader of all time, with 62% annual returns from 1988 to 2021, a 42,000X return after 49% fees.
  • Recently, Simons backed up the truck on Amazon, increasing his position by 270%, buying almost $700 million worth, and he now owns $1 billion, making Amazon his second largest company.
  • Amazon’s earnings show its hyper-growth empire built around AI-driven retail, cloud, advertising, and streaming is doing fine, adjusted for the current economy.
  • AMZN remains 30% undervalued despite a 30% rally since October, is growing free cash flow at 45% annually, and has a PEG of 0.49, hyper-growth at a wonderful price.
  • AMZN could triple in the next three years and almost 7X in the next six. The greatest trader in history is backing up the truck on Amazon and you should consider doing the same.

heap of US Dollar bills, money background. Top view of business concept on background with copy space

Mykola Sosiukin

This article was published on Dividend Kings on May 3.

You’ve probably heard of Warren Buffett, Joel Greenblatt, Peter Lynch, Howard Marks, and John Templeton.

These Are The Greatest Investors In History

Name Returns Time Horizon Most Famous

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Nick Maggiuli

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Ben Carlson

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Wall Street Journal

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Michael Batnick

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Gurufocus Premium

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SeAsia

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Digital Trends

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Statista

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Statista

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Statista

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Statista

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Ycharts

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Zippia

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FactSet Research Terminal

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FactSet Research Terminal

Year Sales Free Cash Flow EBITDA EBIT (Operating Income) Net Income
2022 $513,983 -$11,569 $73,583 $12,248 $23,200
2023 $559,594 $20,150 $83,656 $22,063 $25,459
2024 $627,781 $38,889 $101,715 $34,137 $29,870
2025 $704,412 $61,546 $120,236 $49,790 $34,838
2026 $788,542 $85,866 $153,854 $69,522 $40,274
2027 $881,923 $105,642 $181,480 $86,451 $45,107
2028 $976,180 $130,274 $211,818 $109,943 $49,467
Annualized Growth 2022-2028 11.28% 45.25% 19.27% 44.16% 13.45%
Cumulative 2023-2028 $4,538,432 $442,367 $852,759 $371,906 $225,015

Year FCF Margin EBITDA Margin EBIT (Operating) Margin Net Margin
2022 -2.3% 14.3% 2.4% 4.5%
2023 3.6% 14.9% 3.9% 4.5%
2024 6.2% 16.2% 5.4% 4.8%
2025 8.7% 17.1% 7.1% 4.9%
2026 10.9% 19.5% 8.8% 5.1%
2027 12.0% 20.6% 9.8% 5.1%
2028 13.3% 21.7% 11.3% 5.1%
Annualized Growth 29.95% 7.74% 23.36% 2.18%

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FAST Graphs, FactSet

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FAST Graphs, FactSet

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FAST Graphs, FactSet

Metric Historical Fair Value Multiples (14-Years) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

12-Month Forward Fair Value

Operating Cash Flow 25.67 $117.83 $122.19 $202.02 $305.99 $356.81
Average $117.83 $122.19 $202.02 $305.99 $356.81 $149.82
Current Price $104.64

Discount To Fair Value

11.19% 14.36% 48.20% 65.80% 70.67% 30.16%
Upside To Fair Value 12.60% 16.77% 93.06% 192.42% 240.99% 43.18%
2023 OCF 2024 OCF 2023 Weighted OCF 2024 Weighted OCF 12-Month Forward OCF 12-Month Average Fair Value Forward P/OCF Current Forward P/OCF

Current Forward Cash-Adjusted PE

$4.76 $7.87 $3.11 $2.72 $5.84 25.7 17.9 13.1

Rating Margin Of Safety For Low-Risk 13/13 Ultra SWAN 2023 Fair Value Price 2024 Fair Value Price 12-Month Forward Fair Value
Potentially Reasonable Buy 0% $122.19 $202.02 $149.82
Potentially Good Buy 5% $116.08 $191.92 $142.33
Potentially Strong Buy 15% $103.86 $171.72 $127.35
Potentially Very Strong Buy 25% $87.06 $151.52 $112.37
Potentially Ultra-Value Buy 35% $79.42 $131.31 $97.39
Currently $104.64 14.36% 48.20% 30.16%
Upside To Fair Value (Including Dividends) 16.77% 93.06% 43.18%

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FAST Graphs, FactSet

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FAST Graphs, FactSet

Classification S&P LT Risk-Management Global Percentile

Risk-Management Interpretation

Risk-Management Rating

BTI, ILMN, SIEGY, SPGI, WM, CI, CSCO, WMB, SAP, CL 100 Exceptional (Top 80 companies in the world) Very Low Risk
Strong ESG Stocks 86

Very Good

Very Low Risk

Foreign Dividend Stocks 77

Good, Bordering On Very Good

Low Risk

Ultra SWANs 74 Good Low Risk
Amazon 68 Above-Average (Bordering On Good) Low Risk
Dividend Aristocrats 67 Above-Average (Bordering On Good) Low Risk
Low Volatility Stocks 65 Above-Average Low Risk
Master List average 61 Above-Average Low Risk
Dividend Kings 60 Above-Average Low Risk
Hyper-Growth stocks 59 Average, Bordering On Above-Average Medium Risk
Dividend Champions 55 Average Medium Risk
Monthly Dividend Stocks 41 Average Medium Risk

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Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool

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Goldman, US Treasury


Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

DK owns AMZN in our portfolios.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.


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