Johnson & Johnson Vs. AbbVie: The Better Dividend Aristocrat Buy Might Shock You

Summary:

  • 2023 is likely to start out weak for stocks, and they could potentially fall 15% to 23% in the coming weeks.
  • Healthcare is one of only two sectors that historically goes up in recessions, and dividend aristocrat healthcare is the most defensive of all.
  • Johnson & Johnson and AbbVie Inc. historically fall 70% to 80% less than the S&P 500 Index during bear markets since 1985. Both are great SWAN choices, but one is the far better long-term investment.
  • One of these aristocrats has superior yield and growth, meaning it offers about 5% higher annual long-term income and return potential than its rival.
  • Over 30 years, that’s potentially 4x to 5x more inflation-adjusted dividends and total returns over its rival. That makes it the superior long-term income growth investment from the fair value or better.

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This article was published on Dividend Kings on Wednesday, January 4, 2023.

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According to Bloomberg, in 2022, Morgan Stanley was the most accurate forecasting team on Wall Street.

They predicted that high inflation would cause interest rates to

Earnings Decline In 2023

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Ben Carlson

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Charlie Bilello

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Reuters

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Legacy Research

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S&P

Bear Market JNJ ABBV/ABT (Pre-2013) 60/40 S&P
2022 Stagflation 7% 24% -21% -28%
Pandemic Crash -11% -13% -13% -34%
2018 -6% -2% -9% -21%
2011 -1% 0% -16% -22%
Great Recession -28% -26% -44% -58%
Tech Crash -19% -35% -22% -50%
July 1998 to October 1998 -6% 7% -10% -22%
1990 Recession 0% 11% NA -20%
1987 Black Monday Period -26% -31% NA -36%
Average -10% -7% -19% -32%
Peak Decline Vs. S&P 500 -69% -78% -40% 0%

Company JNJ ABBV JNJ Wins ABBV Wins
Yield 2.5% 3.6% 1
LT Growth Consensus 4.3% 8.7% 1
Total Return Potential 6.8% 12.3% 1
LT Risk-Adjusted Expected Return 4.8% 8.2% 1
Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Expected Return 2.4% 5.8% 1
Conservative Years To Double (Adjusted For Risk And Inflation) 30.6 12.5 1
Historical Total Return 12.7% 21.3% 1
12-Month Consensus Total Return Potential 7% 3% 1
12-Month Fundamentally Justified Total Return Potential 2% -9% 1
5-Year Consensus Return Potential 5% to 11% 7% to 11% 1
Discount To Fair Value 0% -15.0% 1
Cash-Adjusted P/E 13.4 13.1 1
DK Rating Reasonable Buy Hold 1
Dividend King’s Automatic Investment Decision Score 61% Very Poor 71% Below-Market Average 1
Quality Score 91% 85% 1
Safety Score 97% 85% 1
Dependability Score 83% 86% 1
S&P LT Risk Management Global Percentile 77% Good, Low Risk 99% Exceptional (Very Low Risk) 1
Credit Rating AAA Stable BBB+ Positive 1
30-Year Bankruptcy Risk 0.07% 5.00% 1
Dividend Growth Streak (Years) 59 51 1
5 Year Dividend Growth Rate 6% 18% 1
Return On Capital (12-Months) 122% 338% 1
Return On Capital Industry Percentile 96% 99% 1
Return On Capital (13-Year Median) 106% 222%
Return On Capital (5-Year trend) -1% -4.2% 1
Sum 11 14

Classification S&P LT Risk-Management Global Percentile

Risk-Management Interpretation

Risk-Management Rating

BTI, ILMN, SIEGY, SPGI, WM, CI, CSCO, WMB, SAP, CL 100 Exceptional (Top 80 companies in the world) Very Low Risk
AbbVie 99

Exceptional

Very Low Risk

Strong ESG Stocks 86

Very Good

Very Low Risk

Foreign Dividend Stocks 77

Good, Bordering On Very Good

Low Risk

Ultra SWANs 74 Good Low Risk
Johnson & Johnson 71 Good Low Risk
Dividend Aristocrats 67 Above-Average (Bordering On Good) Low Risk
Low Volatility Stocks 65 Above-Average Low Risk
Master List average 61 Above-Average Low Risk
Dividend Kings 60 Above-Average Low Risk
Hyper-Growth stocks 59 Average, Bordering On Above-Average Medium Risk
Dividend Champions 55 Average Medium Risk
Monthly Dividend Stocks 41 Average Medium Risk

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GuruFocus Premium

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GuruFocus Premium

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Ycharts

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FactSet Research Terminal

Investment Strategy Yield LT Consensus Growth LT Consensus Total Return Potential Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
AbbVie 3.6% 8.7% 12.3% 8.6%
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF 1.9% 10.2% 12.1% 8.5%
Nasdaq 0.8% 10.9% 11.7% 8.2%
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF 3.4% 7.6% 11.0% 7.7%
Dividend Aristocrats 1.9% 8.5% 10.4% 7.3%
S&P 500 1.8% 8.5% 10.3% 7.2%
Johnson & Johnson 2.5% 4.3% 6.8% 4.8%

Time Frame (Years) 7.8% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&P 500 Consensus 4.4% Inflation-Adjusted JNJ Consensus 9.9% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted ABBV Consensus Difference Between Inflation-Adjusted ABBV Consensus And S&P Consensus
5 $1,453.75 $1,240.23 $1,603.20 $149.45
10 $2,113.39 $1,538.17 $2,570.26 $456.87
15 $3,072.33 $1,907.69 $4,120.65 $1,048.31
20 $4,466.40 $2,365.97 $6,606.23 $2,139.83
25 $6,493.02 $2,934.35 $10,591.13 $4,098.11
30 $9,439.23 $3,639.28 $16,979.73 $7,540.50

Time Frame (Years) Ratio Inflation-Adjusted ABBV Consensus/JNJ Consensus Ratio Inflation-Adjusted ABBV Consensus vs. S&P consensus
5 1.29 1.10
10 1.67 1.22
15 2.16 1.34
20 2.79 1.48
25 3.61 1.63
30 4.67 1.80

Company Total Return Since 2013 Yield 2013 Yield On Cost 2022 Annual Income Growth

Income Growth/Total Return

Johnson & Johnson 12.7% 3.7% 8.2% 9.24% 73%
AbbVie 21.3% 4.6% 23.8% 20.04% 94%
S&P 12.3% 2.4% 5.3% 9.20% 75%
Average 81%

Company Yield Growth Total Return Long-Term Income Growth (Conservative Estimate)

Long-Term Income Growth (Bullish Estimate)

Johnson & Johnson 2.5% 4.3% 6.8% 3.3% 10.3%
AbbVie 3.6% 8.7% 12.3% 6.0% 18.6%
S&P 1.8% 8.5% 10.3% 5.0% 15.6%

Company Historical Fair Value Current Price

Discount To Fair Value

Johnson & Johnson $177.84 $178.19 -0.2%
AbbVie $141.64 $162.38 -14.6%
S&P $3,872.16 $3,824.14 1.2%

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(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)

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(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)

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(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)

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(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)

Bear Market JNJ ABBV/ABT (Pre-2013) 60/40 S&P
2022 Stagflation 7% 24% -21% -28%
Pandemic Crash -11% -13% -13% -34%
2018 -6% -2% -9% -21%
2011 -1% 0% -16% -22%
Great Recession -28% -26% -44% -58%
Tech Crash -19% -35% -22% -50%
July 1998 to October 1998 -6% 7% -10% -22%
1990 Recession 0% 11% NA -20%
1987 Black Monday Period -26% -31% NA -36%
Average -10% -7% -19% -32%
Peak Decline Vs. S&P 500 -69% -78% -40% 0%

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JPMorgan Asset Management

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Ploutos


Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Dividend Kings owns ABBV and JNJ in our portfolios.


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