Lithium Americas: The Unloved Market Is Getting Some Attention

Summary:

  • The new ownership structure of Thacker Pass, with Lithium Americas holding 62% and General Motors 38%, is a positive development for the company.
  • GM’s $625 million investment, including $430 million in cash and $195 million in letters of credit, provides crucial capital for Thacker Pass.
  • Despite asset dilution, the GM partnership and DOE loan will help LAC complete Thacker Pass by 2028, unlocking significant future growth potential.
  • Future stock price estimates range from $3-$4 in 2028 to $17-$30 in 2032, reflecting the positive long-term outlook despite short-term adjustments.
A double exposure image of skyscrapers with overlay of financial graphs, set against a blurred background, illustrating the concept of business growth

peshkov

An update on (NYSE:LAC) is merited given the new ownership structure of Thacker Pass. Let me start off by saying that this is an overall positive for the company. For the past 9 months, low lithium prices have kept a lid on

2024 Q3

DOE Loan closes and LAC secures 75% of project funding

2024 Q4

GM Tranche 2 closes and LAC issues $330 Million worth of shares

2025 Q1

Major construction and procurement starts for Phase 1

2027 Q4

Phase 1 reaches mechanical completion

2028 Q1

Phase 1 starts up and operates at 50% capacity for 1 year.

2028 Q4

Phase 2 starts engineering and construction efforts. Assume capital costs increase by 25%

2029 Q1

Phase 1 reaches 100% capacity

2031 Q1

Phase 2 reaches mechanical completion

2031 Q2

Phase 2 starts up and operates 50% capacity for remainder of 2031

2032 Q1

Thacker Pass phase 2 reaches 100% production capacity


Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of LAC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *