Nvidia Bounces Toward Our Target Of $165 (Technical Analysis)

Summary:

• Nvidia had a short-term Sell signal but a long-term Buy signal, offering a buy-on-weakness opportunity with our target price of ~$165.
• Our SID system, combining fundamentals and technicals, rates NVDA highly, though its SID score dropped from 100 to 90, projecting a 26% gain in 12 months.
• SA analysts have a consensus Buy rating, Wall St. analysts have a strong Buy, but SA Quant rates it a Hold probably due to a weak Valuation grade.
• NVDA’s future performance hinges on excellent earnings reports; any post-earnings pullback will likely trigger buy-on-weakness signals.

As indicated in our last article, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) had a short-term Sell signal and a longer-term Buy signal. That short-term signal provided investors with the opportunity to buy a long-term investment on price weakness. NVDA had a perfect score of 100. As you can see on our Model Portfolio Watchlist below, NVDA is still at the top of our list, with the highest Stocks In Demand or SID score in the SID column, but has dropped from 100 to 90. Our computer is calculating a 26% gain in 12 months and our target price is ~$165.

Here is our 2025 Model Portfolio Watchlist with NVDA at the top. Notice on our 20-day bar chart how red bars of Supply improved to black bars of Demand, but no green bars indicating buyers chasing price. Portfolio Managers will wait for the next pullback in price to buy, if they are not already maxed out on how much of NVDA they are allowed to own.

As you know from our previous articles, our SID system uses both fundamentals and technicals to come up with our SID score. Here we have to do our due diligence on the SID computer system. We do that by first analyzing the charts for the technicals. Then we go to the SA analyst ratings and Quant ratings for the fundamentals.

Here is the longer term, more reliable signals on the weekly chart, and you can see all the technical buy signals. However, our SID Buy signal at the top of the chart is unlike the other purely technical signals on the chart because it uses both fundamentals and technicals.

Note on the above chart that between the vertical red line technical Sell signal and the blue line technical Buy signal, the sellers failed to trigger a Sell signal at the top of our chart showing our SID signal. This confirmed that the pullback was a buy on weakness opportunity. Now with Buy signals for the SID, ADX, MACD, Full Sto and Performance we think price is targeting ~$165.

Now let’s go to the SA signals. SA analysts have a consensus Buy rating, while the Wall St. analysts have a strong Buy. The SA Quant rating is a Hold, so we feel comfortable with our SID rating that just improved from a Hold to a Buy rating.

The SA Quant rating shows strong grades for Growth, Profitability, Momentum and Revisions, but a weak grade for Valuation. It is difficult to accept a target of $165 when the forward PE is 48. The market obviously is expecting higher targets as future earnings are reported. If that fails to happen, then the price will drop.

The consensus Wall St. analyst target is $149, but the highest target is $203. In October, there are a large number of analysts who have switched from a Buy to a Hold rating. That would reflect the weak Valuation grade given by the SA Quant system.

NVDA needs to come in with an excellent earnings report. The CEO thinks the growth is good, but that may not live up to the high expectations of the market. Any pullback after earnings will probably trigger our buy on weakness signals, which we show in the Tmg and Cfrm columns of our daily report, shown above. We will keep you posted. Or just message us if you want an update on our signals, and we will post them as part of this article.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in NVDA over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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