Nvidia’s Guidance Is A Disappointment
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Summary:
- Nvidia Corporation reported strong Q2 earnings, but growth has slowed compared to previous quarters, leading to a 5% drop in after-hours trading.
- The data center segment drove significant revenue growth, but Nvidia’s heavy reliance on this unit poses risks if it slows down.
- Gross margins declined sequentially, and the new $50 billion buyback authorization is unlikely to significantly impact Nvidia’s share count.
- Nvidia remains a leader in AI data centers, but with a high valuation, waiting for a better entry point may be prudent.
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Article Thesis
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported its most recent quarterly earnings results on Wednesday afternoon. The company beat estimates once again, but Nvidia is experiencing a growth slowdown — while growth is still great in absolute terms, it is not as great as it was a year ago. The market’s reaction was rather negative, and a new $50 billion buyback authorization didn’t change that.
Past Coverage
I have written about Nvidia Corporation in the past. My most recent article is from May, where I covered the company’s first-quarter earnings results and the stock split the company announced at the time. With one quarter having passed since then, and with Nvidia announcing its most recent quarterly earnings results today, it is time for a thesis update.
What Happened?
Nvidia Corporation announced its Q2 results following the market’s close on Wednesday. The headline results can be seen in the following screencap from Seeking Alpha:
Nvidia’s quarterly earnings results (Seeking Alpha)
The company delivered another double beat, relative to the analyst consensus estimate, but the magnitude of the beat wasn’t as large as in some quarters in the recent past. The revenue estimate was beaten by around 4%, while the earnings per share estimate was beaten by around 6%. That’s good, but not as great as the revenue and earnings per share beats of around 20% and 30%, respectively, one year ago.
The market seems to be a bit disappointed, as Nvidia’s shares are trading down 5% in after-hours trading at the time of writing. This could change, of course, and the share price might be different on Thursday, as investors will digest Nvidia’s results and guidance over the coming hours.
Nvidia’s Performance During The Second Quarter
Nvidia generated massive revenue growth on a year-over-year basis, which was expected by everyone. Like in previous quarters, this business growth was largely driven by Nvidia’s data center segment. Here, revenues were up 155% compared to the previous year’s quarter, while overall revenues were up by 122% compared to one year earlier. Data center growth was thus above the growth rate experienced by Nvidia’s other segments, i.e., gaming, professional visualization, auto, and OEM & other. On one hand, this is good news for Nvidia — the data center business is the largest unit by far, and an above-average growth rate here means that company-wide growth is seeing a big tailwind.
On the other hand, though, Nvidia’s reliance on its data center business, both when it comes to growth and to overall revenue generation in absolute terms, means NVDA could run into major issues if it were to slow down. Nvidia’s other business units are not large and fast-growing enough to offset potential future headwinds in the data center business. Investors should not ignore this massive reliance on a single business unit, I believe.
Nvidia’s sequential revenue growth rate was 18% in the previous quarter, and 15% during the most recent quarter. Growth thus slowed down on a sequential basis — this trend has been intact for some time (before the 18% growth rate reported for the first quarter, Nvidia generated revenue growth of 22% in Q4). This is not overly surprising, however, as the law of large numbers dictates that a very high growth rate can’t be maintained forever. Still, with the sequential growth rate slowing down meaningfully for several quarters in a row, Nvidia seems to be maturing at a substantial pace. This is even though the 15% quarterly revenue growth rate is still strong compared to most other companies — it is just not strong compared to the growth Nvidia delivered a couple of quarters ago.
Of course, Nvidia’s revenue performance is just one of several important factors when analyzing the company’s quarterly report. Nvidia’s profit performance is critical as well, and so is the company’s guidance for the current quarter.
When it comes to profits, Nvidia generated a gross margin of 75.7% on an adjusted basis. That’s excellent in absolute terms, but represents a decline compared to the previous quarter — in Q1, Nvidia’s gross margin stood at an even higher level of 78.9% (on an adjusted basis). The company’s gross margin thus declined by a little more than 300 base points on a sequential basis, which is not great. While margins were up on a year-over-year basis, the year-over-year margin growth rate slowed down to around 450 base points — it stood north of 1,000 base points a couple of quarters ago. It remains to be seen whether the gross margin dip that Nvidia experienced during the second quarter was a one-time thing, or whether margins have hit a ceiling and can’t grow higher going forward. They are, after all, pretty high in absolute terms. The Blackwell ramp-up could play a role in the margin decline we have seen during the second quarter.
The good news is that operating margins continued to expand, mainly thanks to operating leverage: While operating expenses rose substantially, by more than 50%, the revenue growth rate and the gross profit growth rate were even higher than that, allowing Nvidia to expand its operating margins and to grow its profits at a strong pace. Both net income and earnings per share were up by 152% year over year, as the share count remained unchanged from the previous year’s quarter — despite hefty buyback spending. Share issuance to the company’s management team and employees fully offset any share count reduction via Nvidia’s buybacks, despite $15 billion being spent on buybacks during the first half of the current year alone.
Going forward, Nvidia may ramp up its buybacks even further, as the company has, as mentioned, announced a new $50 billion share repurchase authorization. But even if Nvidia were to increase its buyback pace to $50 billion a year (from the H1 pace of $30 billion a year), the share count reduction would likely be negligible. Share issuance to employees and management will continue, and for a company that is valued at more than $3 trillion, $50 billion in buybacks pencils out to just 1.5% in gross buybacks. Buybacks will thus, I believe, not be a major source of earnings per share growth. Instead, the company will continue to rely on underlying business growth and operating leverage going forward.
When it comes to business growth in the current quarter, Nvidia’s guidance gives us some hints. The company forecasts revenues of $32.5 billion, plus or minus 2%. Looking at the guidance midpoint, the implied sequential growth rate is 8%. If Nvidia hits the guidance midpoint, growth will thus slow down substantially from the first half of the current year, as sequential revenue growth was 15% in Q2 and 18% in Q1. Management might try to under-promise and overdeliver, but taking the guidance at face value, growth will not be extraordinary this quarter. An 8% quarterly growth rate isn’t strong compared to what Nvidia investors got used to in the recent past, which likely helps explain the share price decline following Nvidia’s earnings release.
Beyond the current quarter, growth will depend on Nvidia’s Blackwell to a large degree. Management’s comments looked good in that regard. CEO Jensen Huang stated in the release:
Hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible.
It is not possible to quantify what “incredible” anticipation will translate to when it comes to future revenue and profit generation, but the statement nevertheless is positive. Nvidia does not overpromise, thus when they are happy about what Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)(GOOGL), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), and other customers think about Blackwell, then that’s a good sign, I believe.
Is Nvidia A Good Investment?
Nvidia continues to grow, which is hardly a surprise. But growth has slowed down compared to prior quarters, and gross margins declined during the second quarter. Nvidia’s guidance for the current quarter, Q3, implies that growth will continue to slow. This is to be expected to some degree, as no company can grow at a 100% annual pace forever, but it looks like investors still were relatively unhappy about Nvidia’s results and guidance.
Nvidia remains the AI data center king for now, and that won’t change in the foreseeable future, I believe. But since Nvidia’s shares are trading at close to 50x forward profits, and since Nvidia is valued at more than $3 trillion, the company is priced for perfection. While buying into Nvidia was an excellent choice a year ago, I’m not sure that Nvidia is an excellent investment right here. Waiting for a better entry point could pay off — Nvidia traded more than 20% lower just a couple of weeks ago, and investors were able to buy Nvidia in the $70s this spring.
With shares being very volatile, I wouldn’t be surprised if a better buying opportunity emerges over the coming months. Nvidia is a strong company, but I do not believe that it trades well below fair value, which is why I give it a “Neutral” rating for now.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GOOG either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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