Tesla: High Hopes, Low Deliveries
Summary:
- Tesla’s 2024 performance was disappointing, with sales growth under 1% and a 9% decline in operating income, yet the stock surged 62% due to multiple expansion.
- Musk’s 20-30% growth target for 2025 is highly questionable given negative delivery growth in 2024 and stiff competition from Chinese EV makers like BYD.
- Tesla’s self-driving technology lags behind competitors like Waymo, facing significant technological and regulatory hurdles that undermine near-term growth expectations.
- With over 80% of revenue from automotive sales and margins resembling legacy automakers, Tesla’s valuation is detached from reality; fair value is $104 per share.
About a year ago, I wrote an article detailing why I believe Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) (NEOE:TSLA:CA) stock will trade down to double-digit stock valuation. I argued:
For a long time, Tesla investors expected the electric vehicle (“EV”) company to grow steadily, and aggressively, while
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