UnitedHealth Group’s Guidance Is Overly Optimistic

Summary:

  • Management’s optimistic guidance is unrealistic given industry trends and the significant risk from PBM legislation impacting profitability.
  • UnitedHealth’s growth expectations are unsustainable at scale, with market growth rates suggesting a much lower CAGR than management’s projections.
  • Despite potential upside from Optum Insights and Optum Health, the risks outweigh the benefits, especially with major legislative and lawsuit challenges.
Receptionist giving a health card to female patient at clinic

Luis Alvarez

I am initiating coverage on UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) (NEOE:UNH:CA) due to its rapid share price rise over the past three months.

UnitedHealth Group is an integrated healthcare company with two primary business units. UnitedHealthcare offers various health insurance plans to businesses, individuals, and


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