AI, tariffs, Taiwan, and beyond: What prediction markets expect from Nvidia’s earnings call

As Nvidia (NVDA) prepares to report earnings after the closing bell, investors are increasingly focused on a central question: What will NVDA say during its earnings call?

With the company at the center of the artificial intelligence buildout and global semiconductor supply chain, management commentary could prove just as market-moving as the quarterly numbers themselves.

Beyond revenue and margin figures, traders will be listening closely for updates on data center demand, hyperscaler spending, gaming trends, and geopolitical exposure. Forward guidance surrounding AI infrastructure, export restrictions, and large enterprise deployments may shape sentiment across the broader technology sector.

According to prediction market Kalshi, traders are assigning the following probabilities to key themes expected to surface during Nvidia’s earnings call:

  • 98%—Gaming
  • 94%—Hyperscaler
  • 90%—Omniverse
  • 87%—TSMC
  • 78%—Cosmos
  • 77%—Automation
  • 75%—Tariff
  • 72%—H2O
  • 64%—Self Driving
  • 56%—Humanoid
  • 52%—Taiwan
  • 51%—Domestic
  • 34%—Talent
  • 27%—Arizona
  • 14%—Trump
  • 13%—GM / General Motors
  • 8%—VR / Virtual Reality

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