Amazon Prime Day: What investors need to know about retail’s Super Bowl

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) will host its Prime Day sales event next week. The event runs from July 8 to July 11 in 26 nations, as it stretches over four days for the first time in the company’s history. While Prime Day captures the attention of shoppers globally, it is also considered a key catalyst for investors.

Not only is Amazon Prime Day and competing sales events one of the biggest catalysts in the retail sector, the impact of Amazon Prime Day has been significant enough to move the meter of monthly U.S. Retail Sales reports, pushing forward some back-to-school, fall, and discretionary spending into July from August.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) will be offering millions of deals exclusively to Prime members across more than 35 categories, such as electronics, apparel, beauty, home goods, and more. As usual, Amazon Prime Day will feature top brands such as Levi’s (LEVI), Dyson, Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF), ASUS, Celsius (CELH) and Sony (SONY), as well as its own devices. Industry watchers have spotted early price cuts on certain Apple (AAPL) products. New this year is “Today’s Big Deals,” which are themed daily deal drops that launch at midnight and are available for a limited time or until they sell out. Prime members also receive added perks, including discounts on services like Grubhub+ and special travel deals. Amazon (AMZN) is also targeting younger shoppers with special cash-back offers and membership discounts for those aged 18 to 24.

The influence of Prime Day is so significant that nearly every major retailer now runs a competing sales event during the same period. Walmart is hosting its Walmart Deals event from July 8 to July 11, with early access for Walmart+ members on July 7. Target’s (TGT) Target Circle Week runs from July 6 to July 12, with early access for Circle 360 members starting July 5 and a focus on back-to-school and electronics deals. Meanwhile, Best Buy (BBY) is holding its Black Friday in July event from July 7 to July 13, offering a week of doorbusters and tech discounts. Other retailers in the sales promotion mix include Kohl’s (KSS), Newegg (NEGG), and Temu. Overall, industry insiders expect Amazon Prime Day plus competing sales events to generate more than double the sales seen on Black Friday in November.

Looking back at last year’s Prime Day in 2024, Amazon set a new sales record, generating $14.2 billion in U.S. sales, which was an 11% increase from the previous year. The average order value was $57.97, and the typical household spent about $152 during the event. More than 200 million Prime members worldwide participated, and over 200 million items were sold by independent sellers, most of whom were small and medium-sized businesses. Electronics, apparel, home goods, and beauty products were among the top-selling categories, with smart home devices and back-to-school items performing especially well.

J.P. Morgan said the longer duration of Prime Day this year suggests Amazon (AMZN) has sufficient inventory despite tariff challenges, which is seen as likely being a function of forward buying over the last few months. Crucially, the firm thinks Amazon (AMZN) could ride the success of Prime Day to a membership fee increase in 2026, consistent with its recent cadence of raising prices every 4 years or so. Importantly, the firm does not expect significant churn or an impact to gross Prime additions if the price of a subscription is increased to $159 as anticipated. Amazon’s (AMZN) decision on Prime pricing could also impact a wide range of companies in various ways, including Walmart (WMT), Costco (COST), Target (TGT), Netflix (NFLX), BJ’s Wholesale (BJ), and Best Buy (BBY).

Evercore ISI highlighted that Amazon (AMZN) Prime Day could provide an extra boost to the e-commerce giant’s advertising business this year, which is growing at almost double the rate of the company overall.

Historically, Amazon (AMZN) shares have gained an average of 2% in the week after Prime Day and just over 4% for the six-week period following the event. ETFs with the highest weighting of Amazon (AMZN) in their portfolio include the iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF (IYK), the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC), and the Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA).