Boeing trims jet demand outlook amid softer economic growth

Boeing (NYSE:BA) expects global airlines will require around 43,600 new planes in the next two decades, with rising demand from China and Southeast Asia helping to drive expansion as more people gain access to air travel. The revised projection is slightly below last year’s estimate of 43,975 jets, reflecting a more cautious view of future economic growth.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions including trade disputes and tariffs that began under U.S. President Donald Trump, the aviation sector has historically proven capable of weathering global disruptions.

Darren Hulst, Boeing’s (NYSE:BA) vice president of commercial marketing, said at a June 10 press briefing that global air travel has shown remarkable durability, even rebounding from crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic. In the past quarter-century, passenger traffic has tripled while the size of the global aircraft fleet has doubled.

Hulst described the commercial aviation market as both resilient and fundamentally growth-oriented, despite near-term challenges.

Boeing’s (NYSE:BA) updated forecast sees the total number of commercial jets in operation reaching 49,600 by 2044, a figure that aligns closely with the outlook released by European rival Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF) (OTCPK:EADSY). Boeing (BA) also projects that airlines in developing economies will operate over half the world’s aircraft by then, up from just under 40% today.

Importance of single-aisle aircraft

The company anticipates single-aisle aircraft will play an increasingly dominant role, making up 72% of the global fleet by 2044, compared with 66% currently.

This reflects the sustained popularity of narrowbody models such as Boeing’s (BA) 737 Max and Airbus’s (OTCPK:EADSF) (OTCPK:EADSY) A320neo series, aircraft that remain difficult for airlines to acquire due to lingering supply constraints.

The surge in post-pandemic travel demand has outpaced production, leaving both Boeing (BA) and Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF) (OTCPK:EADSY) behind schedule. Hulst said the two manufacturers have collectively delivered about 1,500 fewer jets than originally planned, a gap that is likely to widen unless they ramp up production significantly.

Meeting future demand, he said, will require both companies to not only return to pre-Covid output levels, but also to exceed them by the latter part of the decade.