Movies push for holiday record with ‘Lilo & Stitch,’ eighth ‘Mission: Impossible’

A huge weekend is shaping up for the U.S. movie industry, with two major holiday-interval releases set to jump-start what had been a slow start to the film pipeline so far in 2025.

Memorial Day weekend is a traditional kick-off to summer movie season, the most lucrative time of the year for film exhibitors. And with the double dose of Tom Cruise in the eighth Mission: Impossible film (NASDAQ:PARA) (NASDAQ:PARAA) and Disney’s live-action remake of its Lilo & Stitch (NYSE:DIS) over a three-day weekend, records may be set to fall.

The two films together should easily earn well over $200 million domestically, and together with solid May holdovers — including Thunderbolts (NYSE:DIS), Final Destination: Bloodlines (NASDAQ:WBD) and even April’s Sinners (NASDAQ:WBD), the weekend could challenge 2013’s record Memorial Day industry domestic haul of $306M.

A sharp uptrend in most recent tracking suggests Lilo & Stitch (DIS) may be headed for $165M in a domestic opening, a number that would top Top Gun: Maverick’s $160M for best Memorial Day opening ever.

Meanwhile, Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning (NASDAQ:PARA) (NASDAQ:PARAA) is tracking toward some $75M-$85M over the long weekend, which would easily set an opening-tally record for the eight-film franchise.

Those two films will be followed in June by a quickening release pace, with Karate Kid: Legends (SONY) to come in a week; Ballerina (NYSE:LION), from the John Wick franchise, on June 6; and How to Train Your Dragon (NASDAQ:CMCSA) on June 13.

Analysts at Macquarie noted that with a strong film slate ahead, the first quarter is set to be the trough of 2025, with $1.4B in admissions revenues. They expect 2025 industry revenues to come in at $9B (down from a previous $9.2B estimate, thanks to a weak Q1), and noted the business’ recession resistance, as well as a positive outlook at the CinemaCon convention.

One person who always publicly celebrates big release weekends is AMC (NYSE:AMC) CEO Adam Aron. “Memorial Day weekend is here, with movies at AMC like Lilo & Stitch, Mission: Impossible, Final Destination: Bloodlines, Sinners, Thunderbolts, The Accountant 2, A Minecraft Movie & more,” he said on social media. “Anyone thinking this is going to be a really BIG movie-watching theatre-going weekend?”

Cinema tickers: AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC); Cinemark (NYSE:CNK); (NYSE:IMAX); Marcus (MCS); Reading International (RDI); Cineplex (CGX:CA); Alamo Drafthouse (SONY); National CineMedia (NCMI).