Airbnb: Growth Potential Despite Potential Overvaluation, Cautious Buy


  • Airbnb exceeds Q1 expectations with doubled net income and 18% revenue growth.
  • Q2 revenue guidance falls short due to unfavorable exchange rates, causing a 7% drop in stock price, but core growth strategy remains intact.
  • Initiating coverage with a cautious buy based on Airbnb’s healthy financials and strong management team, concerns arise over valuation and ability to navigate the economic cycle.
  • My analysis specializes in identifying companies that are experiencing growth at a reasonable price. Rating systems don’t consider time horizons, risk profiles, or investment strategies. My articles aim to inform, not to make decisions.
Wide shot of female friends in discussion while sitting poolside at luxury suite of tropical resort at sunrise

Thomas Barwick

Investment Thesis

Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) reported a strong quarterly results for the first quarter of 2024, exceeding expectations on both revenue and earnings per share. Net income more than doubled to $264 million, driven by a rise in revenue, which was up 18% to $2.14 billion. Nights

Expedia (EXPE)

Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Airbnb (ABNB) (TCOM)

Market share (Accommodation Bookings)





Corporate Strategy

Focuses on bundled travel packages and brand diversification.

Aggressive global expansion and marketing, focus on maximizing hotel partnerships and become a one-stop for all travel needs.

Disrupting traditional hospitality with unique stays, expanding to experiences

Focuses on Asia Pacific market, strong mobile presence, expanding vacation rentals.

Competitive Advantage

Extensive network of travel suppliers, brand recognition, loyalty program (OneKey)

Largest online accommodation marketplace, strong mobile presence, efficient marketing. Strong financials.

Unique lodging options, growing experiences marketplace. Strong financials.

Strong brand recognition in Asia, competitive pricing, focus on mobile users.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ABNB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Rating systems don't consider time horizons, risk profiles, or investment strategies. My articles aim to inform, not to make decisions.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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