Apple And Autodesk: I’m Buying One And So Should You

Summary:

  • Long-term portfolio income closely tracks total returns, which are a function of yield + growth.
  • If you want to maximize long-term retirement income you need to own both high-yield and growth stocks.
  • Apple is one of the world’s best dividend blue-chips, with an AA+ rated balance sheet that’s stronger than the UK’s or EUs.
  • Autodesk is the global leader in CAD and has 28% long-term return potential, powered by a 30-year $150 trillion megatrend.
  • For my family hedge fund, one of these world-beaters is the clear choice for a portfolio with a 4.2% yield, 14% historical and future expected returns, and 12% to 16% long-term income growth. All in a package that averages 9% peak declines in bear markets.

Portrait of crazy man couple full of happiness yelling loudly holding raised arms keeping eyes closed celebrating victory isolated on vivid yellow background

Deagreez

This article was published on Dividend Kings on Wed, February 8th, 2023.

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I’m a passionate high-yield investor, and you might think that means I own only the world’s best high-yield blue-chips.

While I certainly own lots of those, I

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Ploutos

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Portfolio Visualizer Premium

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Portfolio Visualizer Premium

Metric S&P 500 Vanguard High Dividend ETF ADSK + AAPL + VYM
Total Dividends $562 $885 $1,100
Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends $382.31 $602.04 $748.30
Annualized Income Growth Rate 8.1% 9.5% 19.1%
Total Income/Initial Investment % 0.56 0.89 1.10
Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment % 0.38 0.60 0.75
More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than VYM 0.64 NA 1.24
Starting Yield 1.9% 2.7% 1.3%
Today’s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost) 6.1% 10.5% 17.8%
2023 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost) 4.1% 7.1% 12.1%

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(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)

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Portfolio Visualizer Premium

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Portfolio Visualizer Premium

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FactSet Research Terminal

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FactSet Research Terminal

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FactSet Research Terminal

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Wikipedia

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Apple

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Wikipedia

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FAST Graphs, FactSet Research

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FactSet Research

Classification S&P LT Risk-Management Global Percentile

Risk-Management Interpretation

Risk-Management Rating

BTI, ILMN, SIEGY, SPGI, WM, CI, CSCO, WMB, SAP, CL 100 Exceptional (Top 80 companies in the world) Very Low Risk
Strong ESG Stocks 86

Very Good

Very Low Risk

Foreign Dividend Stocks 77

Good, Bordering On Very Good

Low Risk

Ultra SWANs 74 Good Low Risk
Dividend Aristocrats 67 Above-Average (Bordering On Good) Low Risk
Low Volatility Stocks 65 Above-Average Low Risk
Master List average 61 Above-Average Low Risk
Dividend Kings 60 Above-Average Low Risk
Hyper-Growth stocks 59 Average, Bordering On Above-Average Medium Risk
Dividend Champions 55 Average Medium Risk
Monthly Dividend Stocks 41 Average Medium Risk
Apple 34 Below-Average Medium Risk

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Ycharts

Classification S&P LT Risk-Management Global Percentile

Risk-Management Interpretation

Risk-Management Rating

BTI, ILMN, SIEGY, SPGI, WM, CI, CSCO, WMB, SAP, CL 100 Exceptional (Top 80 companies in the world) Very Low Risk
Autodesk 95

Exceptional

Very Low Risk

Strong ESG Stocks 86

Very Good

Very Low Risk

Foreign Dividend Stocks 77

Good, Bordering On Very Good

Low Risk

Ultra SWANs 74 Good Low Risk
Dividend Aristocrats 67 Above-Average (Bordering On Good) Low Risk
Low Volatility Stocks 65 Above-Average Low Risk
Master List average 61 Above-Average Low Risk
Dividend Kings 60 Above-Average Low Risk
Hyper-Growth stocks 59 Average, Bordering On Above-Average Medium Risk
Dividend Champions 55 Average Medium Risk
Monthly Dividend Stocks 41 Average Medium Risk
Apple 34 Below-Average Medium Risk

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FactSet Research Terminal

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FAST Graphs, FactSet Research

Stock Yield Growth Total Return Weighting Weighted Yield Weighted Growth Weighted Return
Dividend Growth ETF Bucket (33.33%)
OMFL 1.7% 13.4% 15.1% 6.67% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0%
VIG 2.2% 10.0% 12.2% 6.67% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8%
SCHG 0.6% 12.8% 13.4% 6.67% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
SPGP 1.2% 15.2% 16.4% 6.67% 0.1% 1.0% 1.1%
SCHD 3.6% 8.6% 12.2% 6.67% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8%
Hedging Bucket (33.33%)
EDV 3.7% 0% 3.7% 10.00% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
DBMF 8.5% 0% 8.5% 10.00% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9%
KMLM 9.3% 0.0% 9.3% 13.33% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2%
Hyper-Growth Blue-Chip Bucket (16.66%)
AMZN 0.0% 28.8% 28.8% 3.33% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
LOW 2.0% 20.6% 22.6% 3.33% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8%
MA 0.6% 23.2% 23.8% 3.33% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8%
ASML 0.8% 25.4% 26.2% 3.33% 0.0% 0.8% 0.9%
ADSK 0.0% 27.9% 27.9% 3.33% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
High-Yield Blue-Chip Bucket (16.66%)
BTI 7.4% 11.8% 19.2% 3.33% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%
ENB 6.5% 4.9% 11.4% 3.33% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
MO 8.0% 5.5% 13.5% 3.33% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
BAM 4.1% 14.6% 18.7% 3.33% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6%
NEP 4.4% 15.0% 19.4% 3.33% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6%
Total 3.6% 13.2% 16.8% 100.00% 4.2% 9.9% 14.1%

Metric 60/40 ZEUS High-Yield X Better Than 60/40
Yield 2.1% 4.2% 2.00
Growth Consensus 5.1% 9.9% 1.94
LT Consensus Total Return Potential 7.2% 14.1% 1.96
Risk-Adjusted Expected Return 5.0% 9.9% 1.96
Safe Withdrawal Rate (Risk And Inflation-Adjusted Expected Returns) 2.8% 7.6% 2.74
Conservative Time To Double (Years) 26.0 9.5 2.74

Metric S&P ZEUS High-Yield X Better Than S&P 500
Yield 1.7% 4.2% 2.47
Growth Consensus 8.5% 9.9% 1.16
LT Consensus Total Return Potential 10.2% 14.1% 1.38
Risk-Adjusted Expected Return 7.1% 9.9% 1.38
Safe Withdrawal Rate (Risk And Inflation-Adjusted Expected Returns) 4.9% 7.6% 1.56
Conservative Time To Double (Years) 14.8 9.5 1.56

Bear Market ZEUS Income Growth 60/40 S&P Nasdaq
2022 Stagflation -9% -21% -28% -35%
Pandemic Crash -9% -13% -34% -13%
2018 -10% -9% -21% -17%
2011 4% -16% -22% -11%
Great Recession -20% -44% -58% -59%
Average -9% -21% -33% -27%
Average Decline vs. Benchmark NA 45% 28% 34%
Median Decline -10% -16% -28% -17%
Median Decline Vs. Benchmark NA 63% 36% 59%

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(Sources: Portfolio Visualizer


Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ADSK either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Dividend Kings owns ADSK in our portfolio.


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