Apple Gets A Warning Message From Samsung


  • Samsung sends Apple Inc. investors a warning message – I have my doubts that CEO Tim Cook will please investors on Thursday when it reports earnings.
  • I expect Apple to report lower margins in Q4 FY2022 and most likely in the first 2 quarters of 2023 (at least) than currently priced in.
  • Apple’s P/E multiple relative to the S&P 500 Index is equal to ~1.2 – that’s about the same as in 2008.
  • The fair P/E for FY2023 that I see [22.18x] makes AAPL overvalued by 11-12%.
  • I remain Neutral on Apple stock, mainly because the downside of the 11-12% potential I see today is not too big to downgrade to Sell.

Apple Store

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Intro & Thesis

​I have been writing about Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) since December 2021, and since then all my 9 articles have been Neutral.

Seeking Alpha, author's notes

Seeking Alpha, author’s notes

Writing a neutral thesis statement seems like

Seeking Alpha, AAPL

Seeking Alpha, AAPL

YCharts, author's compilation

YCharts, author’s compilation

Seeking Alpha Premium

Seeking Alpha Premium

Samsung's IR, author's notes

Samsung’s IR, author’s notes

BofA [January 27th, 2023], with author's notes

BofA [January 27th, 2023], with author’s notes

Author's calculations [ data]

Author’s calculations [ data]

Barclays [January 30th, 2023]

Barclays [January 30th, 2023]

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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