Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round 5


  • Treasury bonds are moving all over the place, with 10-year Treasury bond yield now sneaking back up to 3.88% yesterday after dropping below 3.5% for a brief period in December.
  • On the other hand, the two-year Treasury yield is now lower than the Effective Federal funds rate. Overall, the Treasury yield curve is still deeply inverted, indicating an imminent recession.
  • Post a stunning rally from mid-October to late November, equity markets have been declining since the Fed’s FOMC meeting in December.
  • Apple has broken a key support level at June lows, and selling pressure could intensify from here. Technically, Microsoft is looking weak too.
  • I continue to prefer short-duration bonds to park my cash (earmarked for future equity purchases). Additionally, I rate Apple and Microsoft “Neutral/Avoid/Hold” at current levels.
Stocks and Bonds



Over the last decade or so, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) have earned the status of safe havens in a zero-interest rate world. However, with the interest rate environment undergoing a seismic shift in 2022, both Apple and Microsoft

TQI’s Portfolio Portfolio RTD (%) Benchmark RTD (%) Alpha (%)
GARP -11.82% QQQ: -11.88% +0.06%
Buyback-Dividend -1.47% SPY: -3.97% +2.50%
Moonshot Growth -11.67% QQQ: -11.88% +0.27%

TQI’s Fair Value Estimate Current Price Upside (+) / Downside (-)
Apple $105.98 $126.10 -15.96%
Microsoft $156.27 $234.53 -33.36%

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AAPL, MSFT, TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Are you looking to shield your portfolio against a potential market crash in 2023?

At TQI, we pursue bold, active investing with proactive risk management. If you would like to read our detailed market outlook and access our positioning for this challenging market environment, join our community today.

We’re currently running a “Holiday Sale” event at The Quantamental Investor, and annual membership is just $399 (or $49 per month) if you sign-up before 2nd January. The membership prices will be raised to $899 per year (or $99 per month) once this sale ends.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *