Bank of America: A Safe Haven Amidst Banking Turbulence

Summary:

• Bank of America is perceived as a safe haven for depositors amid the instability of the banking industry.
• Bank of America is performing well, focusing on innovation and technology, but faces challenges such as bond portfolio losses and legal and regulatory issues.
• The current crisis is less complex than the 2008 crisis, with stricter rules for healthier banks.
• Nevertheless, the crisis could prompt a lasting change, leading to market consolidation with some regional lenders shutting down.

Investment Thesis

Amid the instability and contagion fears currently roiling the banking industry, Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) is emerging as a safe haven for investors seeking stability. In today’s analysis, we explore the factors that can set Bank of America back on the growth trajectory, from its role in the banking crisis to fundamental growth factors that make it a leader in the banking industry and a vital player in the broader economy, which support the strong buy rating.

Contagion Fears In The Banking Industry

The global banking industry is experiencing a wave of instability, fueling fears of a financial crisis reminiscent of the 2008 crash. The recent drastic fall in Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft’s (DB) market valuation is igniting concerns over the health of the German lender and the overall stability of the global banking system. The acquisition of Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) by UBS Group AG (UBS) has also prompted investors to look for vulnerable financial institutions, causing shares of other European banks, such as Commerzbank AG (OTCPK:CRZBF), Barclays PLC (BCS), and BNP Paribas SA (OTCQX:BNPQF), to drop.

Notably, the failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and Signature Bank (SBNY) have revealed that regulators have been slow to adjust to fast shifts in the economy, exacerbating the snowballing crisis. As a result, central banks may need to raise rates further to curb inflation.

However, while the current banking crisis shares similarities with the 2008 financial crisis, there are also crucial differences. Tighter rules for healthier banks mean that the issue is less complex, and smaller banks are expected to offer higher interest to depositors to retain them. As a result, the crisis could prompt a lasting change, leading to market consolidation with some regional lenders shutting down. Furthermore, regulators may increase their scrutiny of midsize firms that bear the brunt of the stress, and the regulatory framework may be tightened.

Finally, the current banking crisis is driven by social media-fueled fear, as people can move vast sums with a few taps on their smartphones, leading to the rapid flight of deposits. Regulators may examine the causes of the crisis, which could take months or even years. The crisis highlights regulators’ weakness in anticipating problems and responding quickly and decisively. Supervisors spotted issues but did not move fast enough to prevent them from spiraling out of control.

Bank of America’s Critical Role In This Crisis

The collapse of numerous regional banks has caused a surge of customers to seek refuge in the perceived safety of larger banks such as Bank of America. With over $15 billion in new deposits, Bank of America is emerging as one of the biggest winners in the crisis, bolstering its position as “too big to fail.” The electronic stocks desk at Bank of America has also suspended trading with Credit Suisse out of an abundance of caution due to the ongoing instability in the banking industry.

As the crisis deepens, rumors are swirling that Bank of America could acquire Signature Bank, which was closed by regulators on March 12. The collapse of smaller banks has raised concerns among influential voices on Wall Street and Silicon Valley, urging regulators to act quickly to avoid significant damage to the global financial system.

Interestingly, the fear-driven deposit surge into Bank of America has brought to light the risk smaller banks face, with a recent study revealing 186 banks with negative insured deposit coverage ratios. Only 1% of banks in the US have higher uninsured leverage than Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed earlier in the crisis. The influx of deposits at Bank of America should generate additional income from higher interest rates. However, despite rising interest rates, customers of big banks in the US are not switching to higher-yield alternatives. Big banks like Bank of America also serve many depositors with small accounts who may not see the value in making the switch.

Overall, the ongoing crisis in the banking industry has put the spotlight on the critical role of Bank of America in providing a safe haven for depositors and maintaining stability in the financial system. As regulators and industry leaders navigate these uncertain times, Bank of America will remain a leader in this crisis, having a vital position in the banking industry and the broader economy.

Vital Issues During The Turmoil

Bank of America is not immune to significant challenges in the current financial landscape. According to its 10-K filings, the bank has reported the most significant losses among the biggest banks for a portion of its bond portfolio, which is vulnerable to interest rate risk. In addition, this investment strategy has caused a decline in the value of their bond portfolios, leading to significant losses for the bank as well as the entire banking sector.

In addition to the losses on their bond portfolio, Bank of America has faced legal and regulatory issues, resulting in a substantial expense of $1.2 billion in penalties. In addition, the bank has settled a lawsuit with Ambac Financial Group (AMBC) for $354 million, among other expenses related to the unauthorized use of messaging platforms and mishandling of jobless benefits during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, with the recent collapse of SVB Financial, Bank of America is in a better position due to its diverse deposit bases and ample liquidity. However, institutional investors hold the majority stake in Bank of America, with 59% ownership, making it vulnerable to their trading decisions. In addition, the company’s largest shareholder is Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) (BRK.B), with 13% ownership.

Overall, to ensure continued success in the highly regulated financial sector, Bank of America is taking proactive measures to manage regulatory risks and litigations. The bank’s challenges are significant, but its diverse deposit bases and ample liquidity provide some resilience against the current turmoil. Despite the challenges, the bank is taking steps to mitigate risks and continue succeeding in the competitive financial sector.

Growth Drivers & Fundamentals

Bank of America has been performing well and is expected to continue this trend in 2023 and beyond. The bank’s focus on innovation and technology is paying off, with the rising number of patents (+19% in 2022) granted, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, information security, and payments. This indicates that the bank is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends and technology in the financial sector, which could lead to further growth and competitive advantage.

Unlike some niche firms, Bank of America’s strong financial performance can also be attributed to its ability to benefit from rising interest rates. It is evident from the recent YoY increase in net interest income of 29% in Q4 2022 compared to the previous year, indicating that the bank is well-positioned to benefit from favorable interest rate movements.

Furthermore, Bank of America has seen significant growth in consumer banking, with over one million new checking accounts added, record investment accounts and net client flows, and robust digital sales growth (+22% YoY in 2022). In addition, the bank’s investment in digital innovation is paying off, supported by the ERICA client interaction data (over one billion interactions since June 2018). As a result, Bank of America may continue to prioritize and invest in its digital capabilities to enhance customer experience and loyalty.

Finally, Global Wealth & Investment Management and Global Banking have also shown growth potential, adding new relationships and wealth advisors, consistent loan and lease growth, and strong client flows. Finally, Bank of America’s focus on Global Transaction Services revenue (+38% YoY in 2022) and investment banking fee ranking has yielded positive results. Meanwhile, Global Markets has seen sales and trading revenue growth, record fourth-quarter sales and trading revenue, and increased trading-related assets.

Bank of America’s responsible growth strategy, including a more balanced loan portfolio and increased capital base and liquidity, positions the bank for continued growth over the long term. In addition, the bank’s lower concentration in the consumer portfolio, reduced exposure to unsecured consumer credit and home equity loans, and more balanced commercial real estate portfolio contribute to a more diversified portfolio better equipped to weather economic downturns.

Bank of America’s strong capital base and liquidity position provide a solid foundation for future growth and expansion. Lastly, the bank has increased its tangible common equity and global liquidity sources over the past decade, indicating that it is well-capitalized and has the resources to weather unexpected shocks and take advantage of growth opportunities.

Takeaway

In conclusion, as smaller banks struggle, Bank of America has seen an influx of deposits, bolstering its position as “too big to fail.” Despite legal and regulatory issues and losses on their bond portfolio, the bank’s diverse deposit bases and ample liquidity provide resilience against the current turmoil. Finally, with a focus on innovation and technology, Bank of America is expected to continue its growth trajectory, making it a leader in the banking industry and a vital player in the broader economy.

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

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Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BAC, C either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Author of Yiazou Capital Research

Unlock your investment potential through deep business analysis.

I am the founder of Yiazou Capital Research, a stock-market research platform designed to elevate your due diligence process through in-depth analysis of businesses.

I have previously worked for Deloitte and KPMG in external auditing, internal auditing, and consulting.

I am a Chartered Certified Accountant and an ACCA Global member, and I hold BSc and MSc degrees from leading UK business schools.

In addition to my research platform, I am also the founder of a private business.