Exxon Mobil: Do Not Chase This Rally – Baked-In Premium


  • The production cuts are putting a floor on crude oil prices, which explains why XOM trades with a significant premium, with a projected EPS CAGR of 19.9% through FY2024.
  • XOM may also deliver excellent doubled earnings and cash flow by FY2027, as previously guided by the management, compared to FY2019 levels.
  • Combined with the excellent operating efficiencies and lower break-even cost price thus far, it is no wonder that XOM has recorded a massive 1Y stock gain of 78.1%.
  • Therefore, we continue to iterate the minimal margin of safety for those who choose to add XOM here, against our moderate price target of $105.55.

Oil pumps on the background of 100 dollars.Oil industry concept. Raising prices chart

Andrii Zorii

The Oil Investment Thesis

XOM 1Y Stock Price

XOM 1Y Stock Price

Seeking Alpha

Since our last Hold ratings on Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) and Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) in early December 2022, the conventional energy market has continued to trade

XOM 1Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations

S&P Capital IQ

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: The analysis is provided exclusively for informational purposes and should not be considered professional investment advice. Before investing, please conduct personal in-depth research and utmost due diligence, as there are many risks associated with the trade, including capital loss.

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