Google’s Stock Is Anything But Cheap


  • The recent rally has made the stock significantly overvalued, which seems unreasonable given the steadily deteriorating market share in search.
  • My valuation analysis suggests that the business’s fair value is $1.7 trillion, which is approximately 27% lower than its current market capitalization.
  • Google’s overreliance on search poses a secular problem for investors, as generative AI shows signs of disrupting the search industry.
  • In the new era of generative AI, Google’s position is weaker as it lags behind OpenAI’s ChatGPT, with competition set to intensify.



Investment thesis

My previous bearish thesis about Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NEOE:GOOG:CA) did not age well because the stock gained 20% since April, significantly outpacing the broader U.S. market.

The massive optimism around Google is backed by its recent

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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