Intel: Super Play On Autonomous Driving

Summary:

  • Following Mobileye’s IPO, we believe Intel could continue to be a key partner for Mobileye for product development and could leverage its relationship with Mobileye.
  • We believe that Qualcomm has the performance advantage over Mobileye and its competitors as it had the highest ranking in 3 out of the 5 performance metrics compared.
  • Despite that, we believe Mobileye has the overall full stack advantage in AV solutions with the highest number of AV capabilities over competitors.

Intel Reports Quarterly Earnings

Justin Sullivan

Intel Corporation’s (NASDAQ:INTC) Mobileye segment only represented 1.8% of its total revenue in 2021. Notwithstanding, the segment is Intel’s second fastest growing segment with a 5-year average growth rate of 26.4%, behind its Intel Foundry Services segment with an average 2-year

intel segment breakdown

Intel, Khaveen Investments

Intel Segments

Revenue ($ mln)

5-year Growth Rate

Client Computing Group

41.067

4.3%

Datacenter and AI

22.691

8.7%

Network & Edge

7.976

10.2%

Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics Group*

0.774

13.2%

Mobileye

1.386

26.4%

Intel Foundry Services*

0.786

32.5%

Others

4.344

Total

79.024

5.97%

mobileye earnings

Mobileye, Khaveen Investments

semicon chipmaker p/s

SeekingAlpha, Khaveen Investments

Intel Mobileye IPO ($ mln)

100% Stake

6.47% Stake

Mobileye Acquisition Cost

15,300

990.4

Mobileye Market Cap on IPO Date

16,840

1,090

Intel Gain on Mobileye IPO Compared to Acquisition Cost

1,540

99.7

Our P/S Valuation of Mobileye

8,733

565.3

Intel Gain on Mobileye IPO Compared to Our Valuation

8,107

525

mobileye revenue

Mobileye, Khaveen Investments

Market Share

Revenue (2021)

Share

Mobileye (Intel)

1,386

20.2%

NVIDIA (NVDA)

566

8.3%

Qualcomm (QCOM)

975

14.2%

NXP (NXPI)

824

12.0%

Texas Instruments (TXN)

639

9.3%

Total

6,850

100.0%

SoC Comparison

Automaker Customers

Max ADAS Level Support

TOPS

Process

Cores

Power Efficiency

Mobileye (Intel)

38+

Level 5

176

5nm

12

<100W

Nvidia

27

Level 5

254

7nm

12

70W

Qualcomm

19

Level 5

700+

4nm

16

130W

NXP

8

Level 2+

1

16nm

7

<10W

Texas Instruments

35

Level 3

8

16nm

6

<20W

AV Market Forecast

2021

2022F

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

2027F

2028F

2029F

2030F

Global Vehicle Sales (‘mln’)

82.68

84.3

86.0

87.7

89.5

91.3

93.1

95.0

96.9

98.8

Growth %

5.0%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

AV penetration rate

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

0.13%

0.17%

0.22%

0.28%

0.36%

0.47%

0.60%

Growth %

28.7%

28.7%

28.7%

28.7%

28.7%

28.7%

28.7%

28.7%

28.7%

AV Units (‘mln’)

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.12

0.15

0.20

0.26

0.34

0.45

0.59

Growth %

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

Mobileye Revenue ($ mln)

2021

2022F

2023F

2024F

2025F

EyeQ SoC

1,303

1,711

2,246

2,949

3,872

Growth %

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

Aftermarket Products

83

109

143

188

247

Growth %

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

Total

1,386

1,820

2,389

3,137

4,119

Growth %

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

Diagram Description automatically generated

Intel

Text Description automatically generated

Intel

mobileye portfolio

Intel

Company

Mapping Software

Radar

Lidar

RSS Framework

Robotaxi

Mobileye (Intel)

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Nvidia

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

N/A

Qualcomm

Yes

Yes

Yes

N/A

N/A

NXP

N/A

Yes

Yes

N/A

N/A

Texas Instruments

N/A

Yes

Yes

N/A

N/A

Intel Revenue Projections ($ bln)

2021

2022F

2023F

2024F

2025F

Client Computing Group

41.067

34.25

37.23

39.71

41.56

Growth %

1.3%

-16.6%

8.7%

6.7%

4.7%

Datacenter and AI

22.691

24.71

29.25

32.79

34.73

Growth %

-3.1%

8.9%

18.3%

12.1%

5.9%

Network & Edge

7.976

10.00

12.32

14.93

17.77

Growth %

11.8%

25.4%

23.2%

21.1%

19.0%

AXG

0.774

1.05

1.21

1.39

1.58

Growth %

18.9%

35.4%

15.7%

14.6%

13.6%

Mobileye

1.386

1.70

2.23

2.93

3.85

Growth %

43.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

31.3%

IFS

0.786

2.61

3.14

3.69

4.26

Growth %

9.9%

232.0%

20.3%

17.5%

15.4%

Others

5.019

0

0

0

0

Intersegment Revenue

-0.675

-0.675

-0.675

-0.675

-0.675

Total

79.02

73.65

84.71

94.77

103.07

Growth %

1.5%

-6.8%

15.0%

11.9%

8.8%

intel valuation

Khaveen Investments

Chart
Data by YCharts


Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: No information in this publication is intended as investment, tax, accounting, or legal advice, or as an offer/solicitation to sell or buy. Material provided in this publication is for educational purposes only and was prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.


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