Intel: Tough Road Ahead, But Stock Has Not Made A New Low


  • Intel’s annual capex nut is still the long-term problem.
  • The dividend could get eliminated, but Intel’s senior unsecured credit rating by S&P / Moody’s is still A-/A3. The dividend won’t likely survive a credit downgrade to BBB.
  • Intel’s added 20,000 jobs since June ’21. Expense management counts as much as capex management.
  • In terms of the potential to recover, the PC biz is still roughly 50% of Intel’s revenue and 60% – 70% of operating income. It’s suffering from the post-Covid hangover.
  • Continued recovery in free cash flow is a must.

Intel Headquarters


Despite the EPS miss on Intel’s Q4 ’22 results and the guide-down for Q1 ’23, Intel’s stock has not made a new low and traded below the October 13, ’22 drop to $24.59, despite two lousy earnings reports, and we could take that as a very

internal spreadsheet

Intel EPS estimate revisions (IBES data by Refinitiv )


Intel revenue estimate revisions (IBES data by Refinitiv )

Intel Rev ($ bl’s) capex ($ bl’s)
2022 $63 $20.5
2021 $74.7 $19.4
2020 $77.8 $14.3
2019 $71.9


2018 $70.8 $15.1
2017 $62.7 $11.8
2016 $59.4 $9.1
2015 $55.3 $7.9
2014 $55.8 $10.1

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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