Investors Need A Margin Of Safety For PayPal After Yesterday


  • PayPal Holdings, Inc. has largely recovered from post-Q1 earnings losses, as confidence remains in its “transition year,” bolstered by a robust cash flow outlook and capital returns program in the near term.
  • However, we believe heightened execution risks have emerged, particularly in the Venmo monetization component of PayPal’s long-term growth roadmap.
  • PayPal’s longstanding competitor, Apple Pay, has initiated its foray to P2P payments with “Tap to Cash” via the latest iOS 18 update.
  • This raises risks of severing P2P traffic to Venmo, which is a key customer acquisition gateway to the app’s adjacent payment solutions aimed at bolstering user monetization.

PayPal headquarters in San Jose, California, USA


PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) stock has largely recovered from losses incurred following a softer-than-expected earnings outlook for 2024, which management dubs as a “transition year.” The swift recovery was largely expected, as we had discussed in the

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