Netflix: Underappreciated Growth Potentials With Its AVOD Business


  • Netflix runs a profitable SVOD business and is now rolling out a highly profitable 1P AVOD business that will soon take off.
  • The company’s quarterly ARPU is expected to grow from $12 to $17 in 2022 to 2026E, driven by the growth of its AVOD.
  • NFLX’s 3-year business outlook suggests a +33% to +47% upside from its current stock price of $298.

Netflix To Report Quarterly Earnings

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Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is my top pick in 2023. This article covers its business overview and a recap of the Connected TV (”CTV”) Ad space, my investment thesis, stock valuation, and my thoughts around what investors might be concerned about.

Stream Market Shares


Total hours spent shares


Linear TV vs CTV



TTD’s 10K

ARPU trend

Netflix 10Q, and my own estimation



household share


Stock valuation

My own estimation

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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