NIO’s Q4 Delivery Outperformance Supports A 2025 Turnaround

Summary:

• NIO Inc.’s December delivery results have come as a surprise for many.
• The rigorous ramp of ONVO deliveries in the final weeks of 2024, alongside restored core brand sales at the 20,000+ monthly run-rate, are supportive of sustained margin expansion at scale.
• This complements ONVO’s competitive pricing on the L60, made possible by NIO’s proprietary BaaS business model. The potential extension of EV subsidies in 2025 also represents a company-specific pricing tailwind.
• The subsidies would reinforce ONVO’s already competitive value-for-money proposition, more so than its comparable peers, and mitigate NIO against reignited risks of a price war this year.
• This effectively reinforces NIO’s prospects of a fast-tracked trajectory to GAAP-based profitability by 2026, driven by economies of scale benefits in both vehicle sales and Power Swap utilization with added ONVO and Firefly volumes.

Following a string of mediocre delivery figures in the first two months of Q4, NIO Inc.’s (NYSE:NIO) turned the narrative in December. The company has posted a substantial boost to sales in both the

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