Tesla: An Underappreciated Problem With FSD

Summary:

• America’s decaying infrastructure, including GPS, poses a challenge for Tesla, Inc.’s self-driving ambitions.
• GPS accuracy is crucial for Tesla’s autonomous system, but the current GPS is not precise enough.
• Chinese competitors like BeiDou and Geely are advancing in GPS technology, potentially surpassing Tesla’s capabilities.

Preamble

Much of America’s infrastructure consists of roads that can provide a vigorous massage for your car’s suspension, rickety railways, cities powered by wishful thinking and brittle bridges. You may wonder why it is that the country cannot fix these and other decaying elements that underpin the economy.

There are of course more reasons than you can shake a stick at to explain why there is little money available to remedy this situation. For instance, the country spends a ton of money on education, which, in significant numbers of schools, has resulted in many students leaving with zero proficiency in any skill necessary to contribute in any meaningful way to the economy. The U.S. has engaged in a considerable number of external conflicts that has cost a buck or two. Then there are the enormous costs associated with healthcare due to increasing levels of illnesses in the US. In fact, the U.S. spent $10,586 on healthcare per person in 2018, almost double that of Germany. I’ve previously covered the phenomenon of a surge in poor health in an article I wrote about HCA Healthcare (HCA).

One absolutely necessary infrastructure technology for Full Self-Driving (“FSD”) is an accurate, strong and ubiquitous signal from the Global Positioning System (“GPS”), which recently celebrated its 50th Anniversary. Unfortunately, this infrastructure is also creaking at the seams and represents an unfixable issue for companies designing FSD, and so has the potential to impact Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) global self-driving aspirations. However, Tesla has a potential ace up its proverbial sleeve, which other U.S. companies cannot match.

How Tesla Uses GPS

Tesla’s Autopilot and other FSD packages use GPS as one of the components of their system. However, GPS is not the only sensor and, needless to say, it’s not the sole ingredient used for navigation.

Here’s a slimmed down version of how Tesla’s autonomous system works:

• Multiple Sensors: Tesla vehicles heavily rely on a suite of cameras, along with radar and ultrasonic sensors. These sensors provide a 360-degree view of the surroundings.
• GPS for Initial Location: GPS helps the system understand the car’s initial location and get oriented on a map. This is obviously essential for any kind of robotaxi service or FSD.
• Primary Reliance on Cameras and Vision Processing: For real-time decision-making, Tesla’s system primarily focuses on the data captured by the cameras. This data is processed by a powerful neural network to identify objects, lanes, traffic lights, and other important visual cues.

So, while GPS plays a role, it’s true to say that it provides the essential details of the starting point of a journey. However, the signal from the GPS needs to be accurate, and if Tesla wants to sell the service globally, the GPS needs to be accurate to within the order of centimeters all over the planet.

The Problem With GPS

Personally, I use ride hailing services almost exclusively to get around, which work pretty well. However, I usually have to send a message to the driver about my exact location because, if I don’t, the driver can often find themselves waiting in the wrong street, or I have to stand in the middle of the road waving my phone frantically at passing vehicles. This is because the GPS often gives only an approximate location rather than an exact location down to centimeters.

A memo published in January 2023 highlighted a number of shortcomings in the GPS. The system is vulnerable to disruptions, which could be accidental or intentional. There are also limitless possibilities for hacking or spoofing. However, a key point of the memo was the realization that the system needs improvement as other countries such as China have more advanced GPS systems than the U.S. as they are more accurate, robust, and secure.

In terms of accuracy, most consumer-grade GPS receivers, such as phones, can fix your position with an accuracy of about 3 to 5 meters. In real-world conditions, such as when there are obstacles such as buildings or trees, the accuracy can fall to about 10 to 20 meters. It is claimed that the swarm of 31 satellites provide users with around 95% accuracy anywhere on Earth’s surface.

GPS is essential for taxi hailing apps like Uber (UBER). In fact, it’s difficult to imagine these apps functioning without it. GPS is used in several key ways by ride-hailing apps:

Locating you: When you open the app, it uses GPS to pinpoint your current location. This eliminates the need to manually enter an address, which can be frustrating and error-prone.

Finding a driver: The app uses GPS to identify available drivers near you. This helps match you with a driver quickly and efficiently.

Competitors Of GPS

In the 21st century, America’s longstanding dominance in satellite navigation is facing a formidable challenger from China’s BeiDou system. While the U.S. Global Positioning System was once the undisputed king of satnav, it now finds itself in a heated competition with not just BeiDou, but also the European Union’s Galileo, Russia’s GLONASS, and even India’s regional NavIC.

However, the most significant rival comes from the rapidly advancing BeiDou system. With a constellation nearly twice the size of GPS and over ten times as many monitoring stations, many of which are strategically placed in developing nations, BeiDou is quickly eclipsing GPS in terms of global coverage and accuracy. To quote from the article:

“While the U.S. is making an effort to update GPS, it is already at a distinct disadvantage to BeiDou in terms of global PNT data availability, and soon it could fall behind BeiDou in overall accuracy, signal strength and security.”

China has ambitious plans to enhance BeiDou’s capabilities further, including the integration of low-Earth orbit constellations and cutting-edge technologies such as quantum navigation, which will pose a significant threat to Tesla’s ambitions for global domination of FSD.

By comparison to GPS, BeiDou provides “high-precision and high-integrity services to users with meter, decimeter and centimeter-level real-time positioning.” Clearly, a big plus for autonomous driving. Also, “China is offering BeiDou as an open system, free of charge, to the world, with high amounts of accuracy critical for economic and military space infrastructure.”

Tesla’s Western Competitors In FSD

The race for self-driving cars is a high stakes contest with more players than you might think, and Tesla isn’t necessarily leading the pack. Although, it has to be said that many of them will suffer from the same issues as Tesla regarding GPS.

First, there’s Waymo, the self-driving software giant spun off from Google. They’ve been racking up miles with robotaxis, 40 million to be precise, in Phoenix and San Francisco since 2017, and recently got the green light to operate in LA. Waymo doesn’t make cars, they’re the software boffins, licensing their tech to any automaker with ears to hear. This flexibility lets them work with electric, gas-powered, or hybrid vehicles, and they’ve even partnered with Uber for deliveries after Uber ditched their own self-driving dreams. Here again, Waymo is reliant on GPS to some extent, To quote:

“Waymo has additional sensors, including an audio detection system that helps the vehicles hear police and emergency vehicle sirens up to hundreds of feet away, and a GPS to supplement Waymo’s extensive understanding of its physical location in the world.”

Since being founded in 2013, Cruise has provided hundreds of thousands of driverless trips to riders in San Francisco, Phoenix, Austin, Houston and elsewhere, according to the company. The company is affiliated with GM and Honda and has recommenced trialing driverless robotaxis in Arizona following safety concerns.

Meanwhile, Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:MBGAF) has operated its SAE Level 3 Drive System in Europe since 2022, and it has announced that it will offer this package in the USA in 2024. Although, it would appear that Mercedes is a long way off from FSD.

Amazon (AMZN) has also ventured into autonomous vehicles and even has a robotaxi investment called Zoox.

In short, Tesla has several competitors that are reliant to varying degrees on GPS to provide autonomous driving abilities. All of whom will likely fall victim to any inadequacies of the GPS setup.

Chinese Competitors

Then there is Volvo, which is owned by Geely Automotive (OTCPK:GELYF), another well-known Chinese Auto manufacturer. Volvo has gained significant experience in FSD by offering the service in Gothenburg, Sweden, since 2014. Indeed, according to Reuters; “Volvo expects autonomous cars to account for a third of sales by 2025, with fully electric cars claiming 50 percent.”

Geely considers the problem of determining the exact location of passengers to be so serious that the company has launched a number of positioning satellites into space by June 2022. More recently, an additional 11 have joined the Geely network. Furthermore, there are reports that:

“In addition, Geely plans to complete the network of 72 IoT communication satellites and 168 navigation-enhanced low-orbit constellations in 2026 to achieve “global blind zone” communications and centimeter-level high-precision positioning coverage.”

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is a company with expertise in search, coding, and an AI search engine technology. The company has been operating robotaxis services since August 2022, and has recently extended these services to cities such as Chongqing, Wuhan and Shenzhen.

According to a recent article, in a bid to jumpstart self-driving car development, Baidu is giving away its self-driving car software, Apollo, for free. This open-source approach allows anyone to download and customize the software to build their own self-driving vehicles.

There would appear to be two main goals for Baidu. First, to attract more users to its AI platform and gather valuable data to improve its self-driving tech. Second, to establish itself as the go-to platform for developing self-driving cars, similar to how Android dominates the smartphone market.

This is a big gamble for Baidu, hoping that eventually, this open approach will lead to them being a major player in the future of autonomous vehicles. However, given the company’s aims, their technology is unlikely to gain traction in the collective West, although, there may be no qualms in other countries, particularly those members of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

It is also noteworthy that the Apollo website states that GPS is used within Baidu’s technology, although, I would suspect that Apollo employs BeiDou, given that it is claimed to be centimeter level accurate and in real time.

I’d say, the most well-known among Chinese EV makers is BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF). Until recently, the company had claimed that full FSD was impossible. However, the company has had a change of heart and is now all in with the concept. To get the ball rolling, so to speak, the company has hired around 4,500 software engineers; Phew!

How About Using Starlink?

Some readers might suggest that Tesla begin using CEO Elon Musk’s Starlink system; However, this is not possible at the moment. While Starlink provides Internet access, it’s not designed for the precise positioning needed for self-driving cars. GPS offers better accuracy and wider availability for car navigation purposes presently.

Furthermore, Tesla prioritizes proven and reliable technology like GPS for current self-driving features. Integrating a new system like Starlink for navigation would undoubtedly require additional development and testing for safety and reliability.

Starlink can be used as a GPS-like system, since the satellites are routinely beaming signals to the Earth’s surface. Hence, a receiver on the ground can analyze these signals, and calculate the distance from a Starlink satellite, to pinpoint its location on the planet.

According to MIT Technology Review, Humphrey’s team used the Starlink satellites to locate a receiver within about 30 meters. That still isn’t as accurate as GPS, which can locate a device, such as a smartphone, within 5 meters or fewer. But if SpaceX were to cooperate with Humphrey, the accuracy of the Starlink-powered positions system could improve to less than a meter.

In fact, Mr. Musk has commented on the issue; “Starlink can obviously offer far more robust positioning than GPS, as it will have ~1000X more satellites over time.” Although, he further stated that: “Just not today’s problem.”

Summary

The dependence on GPS creates a vulnerability for Tesla, Inc.’s self-driving ambitions. While Tesla has an advantage in other areas, GPS limitations could hinder its global dominance in FSD.

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

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